Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
803 FXUS63 KLBF 230901 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 401 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * A marginal risk (risk level 1 of 5) of severe weather is possible this afternoon and evening across portions of southwest into south central Nebraska. * Hot temperatures return for the beginning of the week with heat indices over 100 degrees prompting a heat advisory to be issued for portions of southwest and north central Nebraska. * The next chance for significant thunderstorms arrives Wednesday night into Thursday, however, the severe potential remains uncertain at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 For today...temperatures will continue on their warming trend as warm air advection pushes in 850mb temperatures in the 25 to 30 C range. This will allow for surface highs to easily rise into the upper 80s across north central Nebraska up to the upper 90s across southwest Nebraska. A few isolated locations may even see triple digits south of I-80. A weak trough will then push through during the late afternoon and early evening bringing the potential for thunderstorm development. These storms will be mainly diurnally driven, initiating by late afternoon in the peak of the heating and will quickly fall apart by mid-evening as the sun sets and solar heating diminishes. Confidence remains low and only a slight chance PoP (less than 20 percent) has been added to the forecast. Heading into Monday...the main weather concern will be the increasing temperatures. A surge of warm air advection will push surface highs well into the mid 90s to low 100s (warmest across southwest Nebraska) by Monday afternoon. Confidence is high in achieving these highs and were actually increased a degree or two above guidance during this issuance. Latest probabilities suggest high temperatures of over 100 degrees are in in the 90+ percentile range across southwest Nebraska, which only increases confidence in the potential to rise above guidance. Not only will highs soar on Monday, but these highs combined with increased moisture from recent rainfall will push heat indices into the 100 to 105 degree range for portions of southwest and north central Nebraska. Given confidence in these hot temperatures and after collaboration with neighboring offices, have put up a heat advisory for Monday afternoon into early evening. Temperatures should greatly lessen as the sun begins to set and will quickly drop back into the mid 90s by mid-evening allowing the heat advisory to expire by that time. Some isolated precipitation chances are possible on Monday evening as well, but confidence remains low and should once again be mainly diurnally driven and swiftly come to an end by late evening. Severe storms are not anticipated with this Monday evening activity. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Zonal flow will keep dry weather for the most part across the region through the middle of the week. Temperatures moderate back into the mid 80s to upper 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday (a few isolated locations may reach 100 degrees across extreme southwest Nebraska on Tuesday). The next major chance of precipitation will then arrive on Wednesday night into Thursday as a system moves across the central Plains and a cold front gets dragged across the region on Thursday night. At this time, confidence still remains low in development as well as track in the system and therefore severe weather potential is uncertain. As a result, have only put in some mid-chance PoPs (35 to 45 percent) to account for the uncertainty in these late week systems. For now, lingering rain will continue into Saturday morning bringing a wet start to next weekend. Plenty of clouds and rain will allow temperatures to fall back into the mid 70s to low 80s by Saturday as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR is generally expected across wrn/ncntl Nebraska overnight, Sunday and Sunday evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along and east of highway 83 from 20z Sunday through 03z Sunday evening. There are no other flight concerns. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ007-010-027>029-038-059-069>071. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...CDC