Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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408 FXUS63 KLBF 062330 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * A slight risk (risk level 2 of 5) of severe weather is possible Friday afternoon and evening with large hail up to golf ball size and severe winds up to 60 mph as the primary threats, however, an isolated tornado could also be possible. * Active weather continues through early next week, however, the severe potential remains low at this time. * Drier weather with a gradual warming trend is through mid-week with highs rising into the 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The main weather story in the short term will be the potential for severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. After a quiet rest of the day today (Thursday) and Friday morning, thunderstorms will be likely across portions of southwest and north central Nebraska. Dewpoints will increase across the region through the late morning and early afternoon providing increased low level moisture across the region. Moderate instability will also develop across north central and into central Nebraska by the late afternoon. Ample instability will exist across the region to support the development of supercells initially across portions of north central Nebraska. As these storms track eastward, storms will become more of a convective line. Current model guidance suggests lapse rates above 7 C/km along with significant CAPE (over 2000 J/kg) and shear above 45 knots. While the main threats will be strong winds and hail up to golf ball sized, this environment will also be favorable for some isolated tornadoes especially along the warm front draped across central Nebraska. At this time, widespread flooding is not expected to be a concern, although, some localized brief flash flooding could still occur under some of the more intense thunderstorms. Timing of these storms will be earlier than what has been observed in previous systems. Initialization is expected across northern Nebraska by late morning to early afternoon with the most intense storms developing by mid to late afternoon (3pm to 5pm CT). Thunderstorms will continue to push south and east through early evening before pushing out of the area by late evening. At this time, the greatest potential to see severe thunderstorms will generally be along and east of a line from Imperial to Thedford to O`Neill. While the severe potential comes to an end by late evening, some lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Friday night. Some small hail, stronger winds up to 50 mph, and brief heavy rainfall will be possible in these lingering showers. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Despite surface high pressure building back into the region on Saturday, zonal flow will keep some minor precipitation chances across the area through Saturday. At this time instability remains weak and therefore the severe risk is low. Additional rain and thunderstorm chances continue through the rest of the weekend and into early next week as a series of disturbances move across Nebraska. Again, severe storms remain low as the best instability remains to the west and south. Still a stronger storm or two may be possible with some small hail or brief gusty winds. Upper level ridging will return for mid-week bringing a return to drier weather through Wednesday. Warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 20 to 28 C range will also bring a return to much warmer temperatures by Wednesday when temperatures will approach 90 degrees south of I-80. This continual push of warmer air will even allow for widespread 90 degree or higher temperatures by next Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 An upper level disturbance across ID/NV will begin to affect wrn/ncntl Nebraska late tonight in the form a warm front accompanied by isolated to scattered -SHRA/TSRA. This flight concern is expected across nrn Nebraska, mainly along and north of highway 20. The front and convection will remain across ncntl Nebraska throughout the day Friday mainly along and north of highway 20. Isolated thunderstorm development is expected across wrn Nebraska around 21z Friday which should become scattered by 00z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...CDC