458
FXUS63 KLBF 210615
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
115 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances, and the potential for severe thunderstorms
  and heavy rain, will be the focus both today and Friday.

- Rain chances diminish this weekend with a return to warmer
  temperatures.

- Above normal temperatures really take hold by Monday when far
  southwest Nebraska could approach 100F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A warm front is lifting northward across western and north central
Nebraska this morning. By late this afternoon, it will extend
eastward along the NE/SD border from a deepening area of low
pressure across the Nebraska Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop mid-afternoon across eastern WY within a moist
up-slope environment. Initially, supercells will likely be the mode,
but storms should quickly organize into a line segment as it tracks
across the Panhandle into northwest Nebraska early this evening.
Strong winds appears to be the main threat though some hail could
accompany the stronger updrafts. Storms intensity should diminish by
late evening as they progress across north central Nebraska into
less favorable instability. Still, heavy rainfall may occur in this
area, as PWATS climb and exceed the 90th %tile as Gulf moisture
surges northward and the southerly LLJ increases. The better focus
may end up being north of the border in SD however, near the nose of
the LLJ.

Surface low pressure will develop southward into northeast CO during
the day Friday. A warm front will extend northeastward from the low
across southwest into north central Nebraska. This front will become
the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorm development. The
overall shear profiles will be a little less than today, but still
favorable for storm organization. This will be especially true
across portions of far north central Nebraska where surface winds
will be locally backed. A few supercells will be possible early on,
especially near and just north of the warm front. Other higher based
more multicell type develop may occur across the Sandhills into
southwest Nebraska. The focus then becomes the potential for heavy
rainfall Friday night as the southerly LLJ once again increases.
Focus may again be more north in SD but will need to be monitored.
Cold front then crosses the area late Friday night into Saturday
morning. This will shift precipitation chances east of the area
Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Ridging aloft takes hold across the southern plains into the desert
southwest from Sunday into most of next week. This puts our area
beneath west or northwest flow aloft. This is a warm and drier
pattern. In fact a very warm day is expected Monday when portions of
southwest Nebraska could see highs topping out in the lower 100s. A
weak cold front then settles south through the area Tuesday into
Wednesday bringing temperatures back to near average. Regarding
precipitation chances, as mentioned this looks to be a drier
pattern, but still may see some isolated thunderstorm develoment
which is common in a west-northwest flow aloft pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue across portions of
north central Nebraska tonight before coming to an end by sunrise. A
brief lull in the active weather will return for Friday before
thunderstorm development occurs again by the afternoon and into the
evening. Majority of the storms will be across northern Nebraska,
however, an isolated storm or two may be possible as far south as
the I-80 corridor. Confidence remains too low to put thunderstorms
into the prevailing forecast at KLBF at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Kulik