854
FXUS64 KLCH 230904
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
404 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Patchy ground fog has once again developed across the region this
morning. Most of this is likely occurring just at or below
visibility sensor height as multiple sensors have very briefly
reported reduced visibilities. Expect this fog to be short lived
after sunrise and gone no later than 14Z.

The region remains under a broad ridge aloft that extends across
nearly the entire gulf coast. This, combined with very dry air
above about 750 mb should keep nearly all convection at bay. Not
ruling out the possibility of a couple of isolated showers similar
to what was seen yesterday afternoon, but consensus PoPs are
generally under 20%. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient
around high pressure centered over GA will keep southerly winds
generally under 5 MPH.

Guidance is in good agreement on the ridge along the gulf coast
flattening out over the northern gulf before being shunted off to
the East by an eastward advancing trof over the southern plains.
Increasing moisture ahead of this trof will initialize scattered
convection across the region Tuesday afternoon. A few of these
will have the potential to continue into the night with activity
increasing again Wednesday as a second trof, digging quickly south
out of Canada, pushes a frontal boundary through the area. The
pattern suggests something of a broken squall line will develop
along the frontal boundary with precip coming to an end in it`s
wake as a relatively cooler, drier airmass filters into the region
late Wednesday.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The extended period forecast will be predicated on the evolution
of a possible tropical cyclone in the Northwest Caribbean or
Eastern Gulf of Mexico which NHC presently gives a high
probability of development. Considering no actual circulation
center, forecast guidance has been in surprisingly good agreement
on an eventual track through the eastern Gulf of Mexico before
becoming absorbed by the upper low responsible for Wednesday`s
FROPA. Based on this or a materially similar track, the biggest
impact to the region would be breezy northerly flow and possible
low water conditions along the coast. The interaction of potential
tropical remnants with an upper level low over the southern plains
could result in wraparound tropical moisture that increase PoPs
Friday through the weekend, but this is a very low confidence
forecast given a likely complex interaction. Therefore, only carrying
isolated PoPs, per NBM, to account for the large uncertainty.

Regardless, as long as the region remains west of the circulation
center, relatively cooler temperatures will continue through early
next week.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A couple of small showers remain over lower Vermilion Parish.
However, these should not affect any terminals and dissipate
shortly.

For the remainder of the overnight, mainly light winds and clear
skies are expected and therefore some patchy fog will be possible,
especially in locations that receive any rain earlier in the day.
Thus, will have tempo groups from 23/09z to 23/13z for MVFR type
visibility.

On Monday, still looks like high pressure in control with mainly
VFR conditions and winds less than 10 knots.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A weak pressure gradient at the surface will keep winds light
with a general onshore component today through Tuesday. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday as a frontal boundary
pushes through the area. Offshore winds will increase in the wake
of the front Wednesday.

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of
disturbed weather in the Caribbean. This disturbance has a 70%
chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next two
days. Winds and seas late Wednesday through the end of the week
will be highly dependent on the track and intensity of this
disturbance, but are likely to increase through the latter half
of the week. Should a strong tropical cyclone develop and transit
the eastern gulf, strong offshore flow would likely result in low
water conditions Thursday and Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  91  70  90  68 /   0  10  30  40
LCH  90  74  90  72 /   0   0  30  20
LFT  92  74  91  73 /   0   0  20  20
BPT  92  75  91  73 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66