669
FXUS64 KLCH 140519
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1219 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)

Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge extending from the
Eastern U.S. to the Gulf coast giving our region east northeast
winds. Weak stationary frontal boundary continues across the coastal
waters with light northeast winds there as well. Dewpoints mainly
in the 60s continues across most locations with the exception of
the coastal regions where lower 70s prevail. Afternoon temperatures
in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area. Radar showing no
echos across our area, with most of the activity across the coastal
waters dissipated. No precipitation is expected tonight as the
slightly drier air at the surface and aloft continues to prevails.
Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s north of I-10, near 70 to
lower 70s elsewhere. Afternoon high temperatures in the lower 90s.
Overnight lows Thursday night expected in the mid to upper 60s
north of I-10, 70 to lower 70s further south.

By Friday, the mid to upper level ridge over Mexico & Texas expected
to begin building eastward, exhibiting more influence and subsidence
over our region. As a result, afternoon high temperatures expected
to rise into the lower to mid 90s for Friday afternoon with maximum
heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s. Overnight
lows expected to be slightly higher in the upper 60s/near 70 for
Central Louisiana, lower to mid 70s further south. For Saturday,
the upper ridge expected to be right overhead, exhibiting the
maximum subsidence. Afternoon high temperatures expected to rise
into the mid to upper 90s with maximum heat index values ranging
from 100 to 105. Little if any chances of precipitation expected
inland. Across the coastal waters, Gulf moisture and lift expected
to slowly advance northward, with chances of showers and
thunderstorms increasing late Saturday night.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)

An inverted trough will move west across the gulf this weekend into
next week with moisture streaming north into Texas and Louisiana.
NHC is monitoring the southern gulf for potential tropical
development. Moisture from this disturbance is expected to be pulled
northwest around an upper ridge that will move northeast from
Georgia to the mid Atlantic. While the main impacts are anticipated
to be well removed from the local area at this time (mainly into the
southern gulf and into Mexico), an increase in rain chances, higher
than normal tides, and breezy conditions may occur across SE TX and
LA. The current forecast, albeit highly uncertain, is for roughly 2-
4" of rain along the coastal areas during the extended portion of
the forecast then roughly 1 to 2" across the northern half of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Skies are mostly clear across the area, although some cirrus
north of the region could be streaming over the area overnight.
While some patchy ground fog cannot be ruled out, the overall risk
for any vsby related impacts is low. Winds will be light and
variable tonight, then northeasterly 5-8 KT after 15Z Friday, with
FEW to SCT CU again developing during the day.

24

&&

.MARINE...

Light offshore flow will prevail through Saturday. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will return by Saturday as Gulf moisture
slowly moves northward. Precipitation chances increase significantly
Sunday through most of next week as additional moisture from the Southern
Gulf of Mexico advances northward. East to southeast winds expected
to increase near or above 20 knots, along with increasing seas, beginning
Monday, and remain near this level for the remainder of the period.
This prolonged east to southeasterly fetch will likely cause increasing
tides, with minor coastal flooding possible. Small Craft Advisories
will be likely necessary during this time period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  97  72  95 /   0   0   0  30
LCH  74  95  75  92 /   0  10  10  60
LFT  74  96  75  93 /   0  10   0  60
BPT  74  95  77  92 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24