758
FXUS64 KLCH 160856
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
356 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The upper level remnants of Francine will continue to meander over
the ArkLaMiss today while a weak, quasistationary frontal boundary
continues to ebb and flow along the gulf coast with about 5
degrees of dewpoint differential on either side of it. Similar to
the last two days, high res guidance is in good agreement on
isolated to widely scattered convection developing in the vicinity
of this boundary this afternoon and early evening with activity
waning around sunset.

By Tuesday, the remnants of Francine will become absorbed by the
landfalling Potential Tropical Cyclone 8. This will pull the
general weakness aloft a bit further to the east as a strong ridge
axis nudges into east Texas. This will keep a lid on precip across
Southeast Texas with isolated to scattered afternoon convection
possible across south central Louisiana. Any convection that
manages to materialize should dissipate again around sunset. The
ridge will build further east into the area Wednesday which should
keep the whole area dry. Temperatures will remain near seasonal
normals through the period.

Jones


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The second half of the week into the weekend will be dominated by
a synoptic Omega pattern aloft. Ridging across much of the central
U.S. will maintain no appreciable precip chances and mostly clear
skies allowing afternoon highs to climb into the mid 90s each
afternoon. This pattern begins to break down near the end of the
forecast period as the ridge is shunted back south into Mexico.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Conditions to trend mainly VFR / MVFR with respect to ceilings
through the remainder of the evening. That said, with some recent
precipitation and low level inversion setting up as indicated on
earlier upper air analysis, the environment should allow for
patchy areas of FG or ground BR. Trending from the early twilight
hours through sunrise, temporary reductions down to IFR are
possible. Guidance has suggested more widespread development
across SE Mississippi, then becoming patchy into central portions
of Louisiana. Near the coast, signals are not is congruent,
however, with calm VRB winds observational and anecdotal
conditions suggest some temporary reductions in VIS are not out of
the question for sites along / south of I-10. Additionally the
other potential limiting factor will be lowered ceilings near
daybreak where the nocturnal boundary layer will cap some low-
level BKN clouds, again with best signals over south central
Louisiana.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A weak pressure gradient across the gulf this week will keep
winds light and seas low. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across the near shore waters this afternoon and
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  86  69  85  68 /  20  10  20   0
LCH  88  72  87  73 /  20  10  20   0
LFT  89  73  89  74 /  30  10  30   0
BPT  92  73  91  75 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...66