Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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538 FXUS64 KLCH 162049 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 349 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Little change is expected day to day for much of the short term forecast. A weak boundary draped in a west-to-east fashion along I-10 is in place today and will remain in place Tuesday before washing out on Wednesday. Along this boundary, expect isolated to widely scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms. Best chances for convection will take place across Lower Acadiana (30 to 35 % PoPs) where there is pooling of low level moisture. Northwest flow will develop overhead Wednesday, helping to wash out this boundary and bring most rain chances to an end. Forecast soundings also indicate the more efficient mixing down of dry air to the surface, helping to further limit any surface convection. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to around 90/91F this afternoon, which is a degree or two higher than expected. Thus, with an expectation of similar conditions tomorrow, daytime high temperatures were blended with the 12z GFS to bump them up slightly from the NBM. Highs will trend upwards slightly on Wednesday with the arrival of northwest flow and slightly drier air. Daytime temps should top out in the low 90s, but with lower moisture, it should at least be a dry heat. There are no concerns of hitting Heat Advisory criteria this week. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The long range portion of the forecast essential gets dominated by a mid/upper-level ridge building over the region from TX/Old Mexico, gradually settling directly overhead. Meanwhile, sfc ridging initially centered over the lower MS Valley will gradually shift ewd, but remain the dominant weather maker (or non-maker, in this case) at the sfc. The result will be dry and warm conditions with highs generally in the lower 90s (a cat or two above normal for late September) and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s (near normal). Highs do cool a degree or two by the end of the forecast period as the ridge begins breaking down, with additional cloud cover helping temper temps a bit). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Very isolated showers and weak thunderstorms are developing within Lower Acadiana, along a stationary boundary lingering draped across the I-10 corridor. Across all terminals, winds are fairly light and variable around this boundary, and ceilings are generally within upper MVFR to lower VFR bounds. Expect an increase in convective activity across the forecast area this afternoon, however convection should still remain fairly isolated to widely scattered in nature. Only LCH, LFT and ARA carry vicinity wording as these are the areas with highest chances to see activity. Convection should diminish with sundown, along with improving ceilings and calming winds. This same boundary will linger overhead again Tuesday, bringing about another round of convection near Lower Acadiana in the early morning. Some sites saw scattered instances of fog this morning, particularly at AEX where nearby burning may have left smoke in the air. As skies clear overnight, expect more ground fog to develop. This could be more widespread in nature than this morning, but dense fog is not expected. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Winds and seas will be light and low, respectively, this week under a weak pressure gradient over coastal waters. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible near the coastline this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon as convection fires along a weak boundary found just inland. Ridging builds in aloft Wednesday, ending rain chances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 68 85 69 89 / 10 30 0 10 LCH 73 87 73 89 / 10 30 0 10 LFT 73 88 74 90 / 20 40 0 20 BPT 73 90 75 91 / 10 20 0 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...11