952
FXUS64 KLCH 251702
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1202 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A band of strong convection continues to move southeast across
the area in advance of a front that will cross the area later
today into tonight. Made some adjustments to PoPs/Wx for late this
morning into this afternoon to reflect latest radar trends and
HRRR guidance. Beyond this, the forecast remains pretty much
intact, although will likely be issuing a Small Craft Advisory
over the coastal waters later this afternoon as northerly winds
will be increasing in the wake of the front tonight.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Slack troughing currently rests ahead of frontal boundary extending
from the Ohio / Tennessee Valleys toward central Texas. Behind the
front lies a robust dry and cool continental airmass. This airmass
will work its way down to the western Gulf of Mexico over the next
couple days before gradually broadening out in the extended
forecast.

Meanwhile, tropical storm Helene is forecast to become a hurricane
today and continue intensification over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Wednesday before making landfall late Thursday near the Appalachia
Bay(Big Bend area) as a major hurricane. Locally, we will see
increasing offshore flow beginning tonight into Thursday as the far
western periphery of the non-tropical wind field moves over the CWA
while the Helene tracks over Florida and later that night into
southern Georgia. Thus all tropical hazards will remain well to the
east of SETX and SWLA. However, do note, with a strong offshore
fetch of winds gusting toward 30 kts in the offshore marine zones, a
Small Craft Advisory is likely for the 20-60nm off shore zones.
Additionally, swell radiating from the hurricane will mix with the
northerly regime and create some confused seas in these zones. All
that being said, mariners should take caution if navigating in these
waters Thursday.

Taking a little deeper dive into the local conditions during the
short range, skies will become increasingly cloudy today as the
frontal system approaches the coast with scattered showers and
storms, potentially merging to a segmented line by late afternoon
/ early evening coastal portions of southern Louisiana and SETX.
Highs will still trend above climatological norms (around 90F
generally along / south of the I-10 corridor where more daytime
heating will take place ahead of the frontal pattern. Further inland
toward central portions of central LA and interior SETX highs will
trend 5 cooler in the mid 80s. As the hurricane nears landfall
Thursday, highs top out in the low to mid 80s due to CAA from the
enhanced northerly regime ingesting the cooler continental air. Dry
air will clear out any remaining precipitation from Wednesday keep
skies mostly sunny Thursday. By early Friday, Helene will diminish
to a tropical depression over northern Georgia and the TN Valley.
Highs will still be influenced by the northerly pattern keeping to
the mid 80s with some upper level clouds wrapping in throughout the
afternoon. We will remain dry trending into the long range outlook.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

The weekend and first half of next week looks very benign with
northwesterly flow through the column advecting plenty of dry air
across the area on the southwestern side of the sprawling absorbed
remnants of Helene which will meander across Appalachia for
several days. Guidance has completely backed off of PoPs with any
wrap around moisture although there could still be an increase in
cloud cover Saturday. Otherwise, afternoon highs will be seasonal
in the mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Convection will be possible at the southern TAF sites this
afternoon as a band of storms moves southeast through the region.
Brief wind gusts, occasional cloud to ground lightning and lower
cigs/vis will be possible as these storms move across the
airports. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions will prevail through
the period. Winds will shift NE-N tonight, strengthening to 10-15
KT with higher gusts possible by Thursday morning.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again
Wednesday afternoon as a cold front pushes slowly through the area.
Offshore winds will increase in the wake of the front Wednesday.

TS Helene is expected to become a major hurricane over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. Based on the current forecast track and
intensity, offshore flow in the 20-30 knot range and increasing
local seas in the 6 to 10ft range are expected to develop Thursday
as the cyclone approaches the coast of the Florida panhandle and
moves inland. A small craft advisory is likely before these
conditions ease and abate Friday morning while winds remain out of
the north.

Kowalski / 30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  82  60  82 /  20   0   0   0
LCH  69  84  64  85 /  30   0   0   0
LFT  70  86  64  85 /  20   0   0   0
BPT  69  88  63  88 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...24