Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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078 FXUS64 KLCH 202355 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 655 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 404 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows the remnants of Alberto continuing to move inland over Mexico. Meanwhile, a broad ridge over the eastern US continues to build southwest over the region. Moisture over the region remain sufficient to allow some convection to develop and move west across portions of southern LA and SE TX. Despite quite a bit of CU/TCU development around the area this afternoon, decent insolation has enabled temperatures to climb to around 90 degrees or into the lower 90s. Significant coastal flooding continues again today in response to the strong easterly fetch of winds, with water levels along the Jefferson County and Cameron Parish coasts as well as inland waterways running between 2.0 to 2.5 feet MHHW. Water levels are expected to recede this evening with low tide, but are again expected to climb to around 2.0 feet with high tide early Friday morning. The Coastal Flood Warning has been extended through Friday evening, especially given the prolonged crests expected further inland. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 404 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Ridging at the surface and aloft will prevail through the short term period. Mid level high pressure will migrate westward through the weekend, while high pressure near the surface will allow easterly winds to veer more southeasterly. PWATs will continue to trend below the 90th percentile and probably closer to the climo mean, with primarily diurnal convection expected Friday. By Saturday, the ridge will be strongest over the region, with warm and dry air aloft providing enough capping to limit shower coverage. As the ridge aloft continues westward on Sunday, its influence over the area will weaken and scattered showers and storms will again be possible with daytime heating. Daytime temperatures will begin to warm back above seasonal levels the next few days. By Saturday, high temps are expected to reach the middle to possibly upper 90s, especially for areas north of I-10. At this time, enough drier air aloft should mix down to keep heat index values below 105 degrees so no Heat Advisory is expected to be needed. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 404 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 A broad upper level ridge is expected to extend from southern California into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sunday through Tuesday which will keep skies mostly clear and allow afternoon highs to climb into the mid to upper 90s. In the lower levels, high pressure extending across the Florida peninsula and Eastern Gulf of Mexico along with a surface low/weak tropical disturbance over the Bay of Campeche will maintain steady southerly winds through the same period which will keep dewpoints in the mid 70s. Guidance is in good agreement that the ridge aloft isn`t going to be strong enough to cap daily afternoon diurnal convection which will provide brief relief from the heat. Higher PoPs will be across Acadiana where capping from the ridge will be a bit weaker with lower PoPs across SE Texas. The ridge looks to retrograde back into Texas by late Tuesday with an upper trof digging south across the eastern half of the U.S. which will increase PoPs through the second half of next week while also dropping afternoon highs closer to climatological normals. Jones && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Local 88Ds show ongoing convection beginning to gradually dissipate as heating wanes...initialized the srn terminals with VCTS to account, but expect all convection to be done next couple hours. Thereafter, VFR conditions should prevail per forecast soundings with just scattered cloud cover at most expected through the remainder of the forecast period. Easterly flow should also be less tomorrow as the remnants of Alberto weaken, relaxing the gradient. 25 && .MARINE... Issued at 404 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The remnants of Alberto continue to move inland over Mexico. However, a tight pressure gradient remains in place, producing strong easterly winds over the waters. Winds will gradually diminish through tonight into Friday, with seas slowly decreasing. Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect over the nearshore waters through 1 AM, and over the outer waters through 4 AM, primarily due to elevated seas. Winds will gradually become more southeast to south by late in the weekend into early next week, but should stay light to moderate. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 70 93 72 95 / 0 10 0 0 LCH 72 91 74 92 / 10 40 10 10 LFT 75 93 74 95 / 0 50 0 10 BPT 75 92 75 94 / 30 30 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ073-074-241. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ252>254. TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ615-616. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ450-452-455. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ470-472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...25