156
FXUS64 KLCH 150433
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1133 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The remnants of Francine continues to swirl around northern MS and
AL this afternoon with a weak boundary draped southwest into
Central and SE LA. The weak convergence caused by the boundary is
producing a few showers from Vernon Parish through the Atchafalaya
Basin. Aloft, the area is roughly between a ridge over TX and an
East Coast trough, however the ridge is the bigger influence in
the area locally.

Through the remainder of the afternoon a few showers and storms
will be possible, but more so from the lakes area through Acadiana
with the diffuse boundary in the vicinity. This boundary is
expected to drift south through tonight and into Sunday.

Additional isolated showers and storms will be possible toward
the coast early Sunday before the weak boundary gradually stalls
along the shore in the afternoon. Isolated sea breeze convection
may also occur Sunday afternoon. Ever so slightly lower dewpoints
will also filter back into the southern zones for Sunday into
Monday.

Isolated to scattered diurnal convection will be possible in LA
Monday. The upper ridge is anticipated to shift slightly west
while the remnants of Francine move closer and weaken farther in
response to a forming area of low pressure near the Carolina
coast. The tropical remnants will gradually fill through Monday
night and into the extended.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

On Tuesday the forecast area will be situated between ridging aloft
just to the west and troughing to the east, with a NWrly flow aloft
between these two features. At the surface, a weak stationary
boundary is expected to be situated along the coast, with low
pressure near the MS/AL coast. Troughing/low pressure to our east
will result in scattered showers and storms across much of the Gulf
Coast on Tuesday. Across the forecast area, the eastern most parts
of the CWA will likely see some isolated to scattered shower
activity on Tuesday, while further west dry conditions are expected.

For the remainder of the long term, we transition to a dry pattern
as upper ridging shift east and becomes situated across the Ark-La-
Tex region while weak surface high pressure meanders across the Gulf
Coast. No precip and minimal cloud cover are on tap through much of
next week, with little day to day changes expected. Temperatures
will warm into the upper 80s to low 90s each day, while overnight
lows will fall into the mid 60s to low 70s.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A frontal pattern stalling as it moves offshore through the
remainder of the nocturnal hours has been the focal region for
diminishing VCTS / RA moving S to SSE. Behind the front slightly
cooler temperatures and dewpoints will generally keep conditions
VFR into the twilight hours. That said, with some fresh moisture
on the surface, patchy FG or ground BR is possible between the
twilight hours through sunrise. Thereafter, brief patches of BR /
FG will quickly lift with diurnal ceilings remaining SCT to BKN
through the mid- afternoon- mainly above 5kft. Guidance suggest
moisture convergence may allow for convection during mid morning
through mid afternoon across eastern sites along Acadiana.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  86  68  85 /   0  10  10  30
LCH  73  87  72  88 /  30  20   0  10
LFT  72  88  72  88 /  30  10   0  30
BPT  74  90  73  91 /  30  20   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...30