602
FXUS64 KLCH 231726
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

High pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern, both at
the surface and aloft. The main weather concern will be high
temperatures and dew points. WPC ensemble tables show that the
ridge aloft is quite strong for this time of year and is above the
90th percentile. The strongest part of the ridge is centered over
Texas, with lower heights to the east. High temperatures will be
in the mid- to upper 90s, with the heat index reaching 105 in
central Louisiana and the interior portions in southeast Texas.

On Monday, we will see our higher dew points as surface high
pressure on the east coast will cause our winds to become onshore.
Dew points will quickly rise to the upper 70s, with high
temperatures in the upper 90s. This combination will lead to heat
index values at or above our heat advisory criteria of 108
degrees.

Showers and storms will be isolated as the ridge will suppress
convection. Acadiana will be the most likely to see convection,
with PoPs around 20 to 30 percent and the rest of the region
around 10 percent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Weak high pressure will be found across the northern Gulf of Mexico
and this will allow for low level southerly flow to bring in Gulf
moisture and high humidity values.

At the beginning of the period the upper level ridge that had been
over the forecast area will retrograde back to the west some and
this will allow east coast trough to intrude. The weakness aloft
will allow daytime heating and sea breeze to work with the Gulf
moisture to provide diurnal showers and thunderstorms, with the best
chance in the afternoon hours with this pattern persisting through
the week.

Away from any convection conditions will be on the hot and humid
side with max afternoon apparent temperatures ranging from 102F to
108F range, and possibly higher depending on coverage of convection
each day.

07/Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours across the TAF
sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Offshore winds are light, between 5 and 15 knots. Waves are less
than 5 feet with an 8-second period. The disturbance in the
southern Gulf will move onshore into north Mexico this afternoon
and does not pose a threat to our waters.

Higher than normal tides will continue to be a concern today, with
minor coastal inundation expected during high tides.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  97  75  97 /   0  20   0  20
LCH  76  94  76  93 /   0  20   0  20
LFT  77  96  77  95 /   0  40   0  40
BPT  76  95  77  94 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ073-
     074-252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ615.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...15