Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
952 FXUS64 KLCH 251702 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1202 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1148 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A band of strong convection continues to move southeast across the area in advance of a front that will cross the area later today into tonight. Made some adjustments to PoPs/Wx for late this morning into this afternoon to reflect latest radar trends and HRRR guidance. Beyond this, the forecast remains pretty much intact, although will likely be issuing a Small Craft Advisory over the coastal waters later this afternoon as northerly winds will be increasing in the wake of the front tonight. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 352 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Slack troughing currently rests ahead of frontal boundary extending from the Ohio / Tennessee Valleys toward central Texas. Behind the front lies a robust dry and cool continental airmass. This airmass will work its way down to the western Gulf of Mexico over the next couple days before gradually broadening out in the extended forecast. Meanwhile, tropical storm Helene is forecast to become a hurricane today and continue intensification over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday before making landfall late Thursday near the Appalachia Bay(Big Bend area) as a major hurricane. Locally, we will see increasing offshore flow beginning tonight into Thursday as the far western periphery of the non-tropical wind field moves over the CWA while the Helene tracks over Florida and later that night into southern Georgia. Thus all tropical hazards will remain well to the east of SETX and SWLA. However, do note, with a strong offshore fetch of winds gusting toward 30 kts in the offshore marine zones, a Small Craft Advisory is likely for the 20-60nm off shore zones. Additionally, swell radiating from the hurricane will mix with the northerly regime and create some confused seas in these zones. All that being said, mariners should take caution if navigating in these waters Thursday. Taking a little deeper dive into the local conditions during the short range, skies will become increasingly cloudy today as the frontal system approaches the coast with scattered showers and storms, potentially merging to a segmented line by late afternoon / early evening coastal portions of southern Louisiana and SETX. Highs will still trend above climatological norms (around 90F generally along / south of the I-10 corridor where more daytime heating will take place ahead of the frontal pattern. Further inland toward central portions of central LA and interior SETX highs will trend 5 cooler in the mid 80s. As the hurricane nears landfall Thursday, highs top out in the low to mid 80s due to CAA from the enhanced northerly regime ingesting the cooler continental air. Dry air will clear out any remaining precipitation from Wednesday keep skies mostly sunny Thursday. By early Friday, Helene will diminish to a tropical depression over northern Georgia and the TN Valley. Highs will still be influenced by the northerly pattern keeping to the mid 80s with some upper level clouds wrapping in throughout the afternoon. We will remain dry trending into the long range outlook. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 352 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 The weekend and first half of next week looks very benign with northwesterly flow through the column advecting plenty of dry air across the area on the southwestern side of the sprawling absorbed remnants of Helene which will meander across Appalachia for several days. Guidance has completely backed off of PoPs with any wrap around moisture although there could still be an increase in cloud cover Saturday. Otherwise, afternoon highs will be seasonal in the mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Convection will be possible at the southern TAF sites this afternoon as a band of storms moves southeast through the region. Brief wind gusts, occasional cloud to ground lightning and lower cigs/vis will be possible as these storms move across the airports. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will shift NE-N tonight, strengthening to 10-15 KT with higher gusts possible by Thursday morning. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 352 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again Wednesday afternoon as a cold front pushes slowly through the area. Offshore winds will increase in the wake of the front Wednesday. TS Helene is expected to become a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. Based on the current forecast track and intensity, offshore flow in the 20-30 knot range and increasing local seas in the 6 to 10ft range are expected to develop Thursday as the cyclone approaches the coast of the Florida panhandle and moves inland. A small craft advisory is likely before these conditions ease and abate Friday morning while winds remain out of the north. Kowalski / 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 63 82 60 82 / 20 0 0 0 LCH 69 84 64 85 / 30 0 0 0 LFT 70 86 64 85 / 20 0 0 0 BPT 69 88 63 88 / 30 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...24