Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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782 FXUS64 KLCH 161801 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 101 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The upper level remnants of Francine will continue to meander over the ArkLaMiss today while a weak, quasistationary frontal boundary continues to ebb and flow along the gulf coast with about 5 degrees of dewpoint differential on either side of it. Similar to the last two days, high res guidance is in good agreement on isolated to widely scattered convection developing in the vicinity of this boundary this afternoon and early evening with activity waning around sunset. By Tuesday, the remnants of Francine will become absorbed by the landfalling Potential Tropical Cyclone 8. This will pull the general weakness aloft a bit further to the east as a strong ridge axis nudges into east Texas. This will keep a lid on precip across Southeast Texas with isolated to scattered afternoon convection possible across south central Louisiana. Any convection that manages to materialize should dissipate again around sunset. The ridge will build further east into the area Wednesday which should keep the whole area dry. Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals through the period. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The second half of the week into the weekend will be dominated by a synoptic Omega pattern aloft. Ridging across much of the central U.S. will maintain no appreciable precip chances and mostly clear skies allowing afternoon highs to climb into the mid 90s each afternoon. This pattern begins to break down near the end of the forecast period as the ridge is shunted back south into Mexico. Jones && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Very isolated showers and weak thunderstorms are developing within Lower Acadiana, along a stationary boundary lingering draped across the I-10 corridor. Across all terminals, winds are fairly light and variable around this boundary, and ceilings are generally within upper MVFR to lower VFR bounds. Expect an increase in convective activity across the forecast area this afternoon, however convection should still remain fairly isolated to widely scattered in nature. Only LCH, LFT and ARA carry vicinity wording as these are the areas with highest chances to see activity. Convection should diminish with sundown, along with improving ceilings and calming winds. This same boundary will linger overhead again Tuesday, bringing about another round of convection near Lower Acadiana in the early morning. Some sites saw scattered instances of fog this morning, particularly at AEX where nearby burning may have left smoke in the air. As skies clear overnight, expect more ground fog to develop. This could be more widespread in nature than this morning, but dense fog is not expected. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A weak pressure gradient across the gulf this week will keep winds light and seas low. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the near shore waters this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 86 69 85 68 / 20 10 20 0 LCH 88 72 87 73 / 20 10 20 0 LFT 89 73 89 74 / 30 10 30 0 BPT 92 73 91 75 / 20 10 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...11