Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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548 FXUS64 KLCH 251125 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 625 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 An upper level ridge centered over Texas is expected to continue have influence over the sensible weather for the forecast area today. This will limit most convection, with just isolated to widely scattered activity expected during max heating. The lack of overall convection is expected to help air temperatures to soar over the forecast area, away from the coast, and into the mid to upper 90s. With light south winds allowing for good low level moisture, dewpoints are expected to stay in the mid 70F range this afternoon. After running the apparent temperature tool, the combination of the temperatures and humidity will bring heat index readings to at or above 108F degrees for a majority of the forecast area. Therefore, a Heat Advisory will be in effect for all but lower southwest Louisiana and lower southeast Texas from 11 am to 7 pm local. Over the next couple of days on Wednesday into Thursday, the upper level ridge will gradually shift to the west allowing for an upper level trough to cut into the eastern portion of the ridge bringing about a weakness aloft over the forecast area. This will allow for an increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially from late morning into early evening with daytime heating. The increase in shower activity will look to help somewhat keep the heat in check, with widespread afternoon max heat index values below 108F degrees. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Low level southerly flow will persist during the period. This will allow for good low level moisture and high humidity values. The upper level ridge will begin to reestablish itself over the region. However, the upper ridge looks to be more flat and weaker, more of a "dirty" ridge. This will allow for daytime heating to work with the available moisture to produce a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon hours. Rua && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 An upper level ridge will help limit convection today. Just a few showers or storms will be possible mainly across central Louisiana and south central Louisiana during max heating. Placed VCTS at KAEX/KLFT/KARA to account for this starting at 25/19z. Otherwise, away from convection and at remaining terminals, VFR conditions will prevail with mainly south-southwest around 10 knots or less. Any convection that develops will quickly dissipate after sunset with VFR conditions and light and variable winds through the night. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Weak high pressure will ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico this week. This will allow for mainly a light onshore flow to continue to go along with mainly low seas. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be isolated at best today as an upper level ridge continues to have an influence over the region. This upper level ridge will gradually weaken over the next couple of days and this will allow for an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. Convective activity will be higher for the offshore during the night time into early morning, and for the nearshore from late morning into the early evening. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 98 76 95 75 / 20 10 30 30 LCH 93 78 92 78 / 10 0 40 20 LFT 95 77 94 78 / 30 10 50 30 BPT 93 78 94 77 / 10 0 30 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-143-152>154-243-252>254. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07