Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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116 FXUS64 KLIX 221713 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1213 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Strong compression and drying down through 750mb is causing a strong 2C inversion at that level. Even below this level the atmos is dry as well. This will set the stage for another warm dry day today and Monday. The feature causing this is the stacked high currently centered to the west of our area. This high will begin to slowly move east today and should be found centered along the gulf coast Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The stacked high currently located just to the west will have moved east into the western Atlantic by late Tue. Locally, we will continue with a relatively warm dry fcast through at least Tue. After Tue, we will see a cold front and the possibility of a tropical system over the gulf, either of which could cause changes in the forecast, so we will discuss this now. The upper trough that is currently flattening this large dome will also slowly move SE while the main part of this upper trough will continue moving east. We can now see the stronger winds that will fall to the back side of this upper trough moving closer to the NW coast this morning. These strong winds at H3 will cause this central CONUS trough to stall while these stronger winds drop to the back side and dig southward over the next few days. Meanwhile, the ITCZ has basically moved into the SW Caribbean and disturbances along it are moving northward over this area this morning. We can also see the first flare up of convection near Nicaragua and Honduras that will eventually be an area to watch as it continues moving north into the NW Caribbean by Monday. An upper low will cut off Monday basically over the Yucatan and move NW. This will enhance the difluent flow to its east contributing to the upper maritime high that will make the environment very hospitable over the NW Caribbean in the coming days. One can already see this process starting in WV imagery. Most model solutions are starting to agree and converge with respect to the synoptic upper level patterns but this should be enhanced with stronger agreement as we get a good sampling of upper air data along the west coast as the jet core moves in late tonight into Monday. It is this jet core that will force the timing of the tropical system. Now for the problem. We have no way of knowing a location or where this system will move to, other than a general northward motion, since we don`t know exactly where this thing wants to develop a center. So, trying to decide which area along the gulf coast is going to receive this would be absolute conjecture at this time. Long story short, don`t feed the rumor mill and internet hype over this system or any future systems because until any system starts to form, there is no way anyone knows exactly where it will land. Even once something has formed, it can be very difficult. One can easily see how difficult telling the future of these things is by watching successive runs of global models moving this feature wildly from place to place with each run and these models have some of today`s best science coded in them. The best things to do at the moment is simply have a plan in place and stay current with the latest forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Winds will remain stable from the east at around around 15kt. A few sh/ts could develop over nearshore waters mainly during the morning hours and winds and seas will be higher in and around this activity. The hurricane center has an area outlooked at 70% for tropical development over the next 7 days over the NW Caribbean and central/eastern gulf. Remain updated with future fcasts concerning this area over the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 69 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 20 BTR 72 94 73 93 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 72 91 71 90 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 74 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 72 89 72 88 / 0 0 0 10 PQL 72 94 71 93 / 0 0 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...MSW MARINE...TE