401
FXUS64 KLIX 220857
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
357 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Strong compression and drying down through 750mb is causing a strong
2C inversion at that level. Even below this level the atmos is dry
as well. This will set the stage for another warm dry day today and
Monday. The feature causing this is the stacked high currently
centered to the west of our area. This high will begin to slowly
move east today and should be found centered along the gulf coast
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The stacked high currently located just to the west will have moved
east into the western Atlantic by late Tue. Locally, we will
continue with a relatively warm dry fcast through at least Tue.
After Tue, we will see a cold front and the possibility of a
tropical system over the gulf, either of which could cause changes
in the forecast, so we will discuss this now. The upper trough that
is currently flattening this large dome will also slowly move SE
while the main part of this upper trough will continue moving east.
We can now see the stronger winds that will fall to the back side of
this upper trough moving closer to the NW coast this morning. These
strong winds at H3 will cause this central CONUS trough to stall
while these stronger winds drop to the back side and dig southward
over the next few days. Meanwhile, the ITCZ has basically moved into
the SW Caribbean and disturbances along it are moving northward over
this area this morning. We can also see the first flare up of
convection near Nicaragua and Honduras that will eventually be an
area to watch as it continues moving north into the NW Caribbean by
Monday. An upper low will cut off Monday basically over the Yucatan
and move NW. This will enhance the difluent flow to its east
contributing to the upper maritime high that will make the
environment very hospitable over the NW Caribbean in the coming
days. One can already see this process starting in WV imagery. Most
model solutions are starting to agree and converge with respect to
the synoptic upper level patterns but this should be enhanced with
stronger agreement as we get a good sampling of upper air data along
the west coast as the jet core moves in late tonight into Monday. It
is this jet core that will force the timing of the tropical system.

Now for the problem. We have no way of knowing a location or where
this system will move to, other than a general northward motion,
since we don`t know exactly where this thing wants to develop a
center. So, trying to decide which area along the gulf coast is
going to receive this would be absolute conjecture at this time.
Long story short, don`t feed the rumor mill and internet hype over
this system or any future systems because until any system starts to
form, there is no way anyone knows exactly where it will land. Even
once something has formed, it can be very difficult. One can easily
see how difficult telling the future of these things is by watching
successive runs of global models moving this feature wildly from
place to place with each run and these models have some of today`s
best science coded in them. The best things to do at the moment is
simply have a plan in place and stay current with the latest
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR this cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Winds will remain stable from the east at around around 15kt. A few
sh/ts could develop over nearshore waters mainly during the morning
hours and winds and seas will be higher in and around this activity.
The hurricane center has an area outlooked at 70% for tropical
development over the next 7 days over the NW Caribbean and
central/eastern gulf. Remain updated with future fcasts concerning
this area over the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  91  69  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  94  72  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  91  72  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  91  74  90  74 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  89  72  89  72 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  94  72  94  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE