Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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324 FXUS64 KLIX 062025 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Upper shortwave and surface boundary both extend from about Mobile Bay to Southwest Pass, with scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two right along the boundary. Dense cirrus blowoff from the convection covers about the southeast half of the area of responsibility. This has definitely squashed surface heating under the canopy, where temperatures have remained within a couple degrees of the 80 mark, while western portions of the area have warmed to near 90 degrees. Outflow and lake/sea breeze boundaries could still produce a few isolated showers for the next 3-4 hours until we lose surface heating. With cirrus canopy thinning, southeast portions of the area are likely to see high temperatures for the day occur very late in the afternoon. We should lose the cirrus almost entirely this evening. Cannot entirely rule out some mid level cloud cover Friday afternoon with a very weak shortwave currently near the Arkansas-Missouri border, but see mo indications that there will be any precipitation associated with the shortwave. While the column is drying out this evening, some concern that forecast lows may be a bit too cool across the northern half of the area as one has to go north of Interstate 20 to see any significant areas of sub 70 dew points. Friday will see slightly less humidity, but with northerly surface winds mid 90s won`t be out of the question in most areas. I might question mid 90s directly south of Lake Pontchartrain, as lake water is 83 degrees, but even there, lower 90s probably appropriate. Lower dew point air filtering into the area tomorrow night supports slightly cooler low temperatures Saturday morning, but ECMWF numbers appear to be slightly too cool for most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Upper ridging expands eastward across the Gulf of Mexico briefly over the weekend. This will keep any significant precipitation away from the area and high temperatures in the lower and middle 90s. Some potential for a weak sea breeze to temper highs on the Mississippi coast slightly, but that might be a late day occurrence. As East Coast upper trough reloads early next week, upper flow becomes northwesterly once again (similar to much of this week). This will push a weak boundary toward the area Monday or Tuesday, and will also open the door once again for seemingly daily mesoscale convective systems. Global models haven`t exactly been trustworthy in this type of pattern, and expect that to be the case again early next week. The NBM precipitation chances for Monday (30 to 50 percent) have the support of the operational ECMWF, while the GFS looks pretty dry. These trends continue through mid week, and really can`t see departing from the NBM deterministic PoPs or temperatures. Would note that if drier GFS based solution verifies Wednesday and beyond, we`ll need to bump up forecast highs. Not trusting a particular solution beyond Wednesday as ECMWF and GFS operationals depict completely different scenarios regarding the upper pattern over the Gulf. Either solution would paint a wet pattern locally next weekend, but details likely to change, and perhaps significantly, multiple times between now and then. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Convective line has passed to the east of all forecast terminals, and there will be no need to carry mention of thunder in any terminal. Still mid and high overcast for terminals near and east of Interstate 55, while to the west of there, scattered to broken cumulus has developed with heating. The high overcast will shift to the east of all terminals over the next 3-6 hours. The cumulus will dissipate with loss of surface heating toward sunset, leaving most or all terminals with no significant impacts overnight. Rain amounts haven`t been particularly impactful over the last 48 hours, so don`t expect any significant development of fog toward sunrise. Daylight hours on Friday should see no significant aviation impacts. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Aside from some potential for convection in the next 12-18 hours, shouldn`t be much weather concern for marine interests until at least Monday, when thunderstorm chances start to ramp up again. Winds should generally remain below 15 knots outside of thunderstorms through the forecast period for most or all waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 69 92 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 73 96 71 96 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 72 95 71 94 / 0 10 0 0 MSY 77 94 77 93 / 0 10 0 0 GPT 72 93 72 91 / 0 10 0 0 PQL 71 95 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW