236
FXUS64 KLIX 210825
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
325 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

While the low level circulation of former Tropical Storm Alberto
dissipated yesterday afternoon, the mid and upper circulation can
still be seen on water vapor exiting the west coast of Mexico
early this morning. The Central American Gyre looks to aid the
development of another low and mid level circulation over the Bay
of Campeche today. The upper ridge that had been over the Mid
Atlantic States is reforming to the west-southwest, centered near
Evansville, Indiana early this morning. Invest 92L was noted off
the Florida East Coast to the east of Jacksonville.

The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low
pressure near the Bay of Campeche is not as strong this morning
has it has been for much of the week, meaning winds are quite a
bit lighter this morning. To this point of the morning,
northeasterly winds haven`t been particularly effective in pulling
drier air into the area quite yet. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT
ranged from the mid 70s to lower 80s across the area. Dew points
ranged from the upper 60s over southwest Mississippi to the mid
70s near and south of Interstate 10. There was a patch of mid
level cloud cover near the Alabama-Mississippi border moving
westward that could briefly produce cloudy skies this morning.
Radar was picking up a few very small rainshowers this morning,
but areal coverage is so small at this point that very few, if
any, people will experience them. It was rather tough to find any
stations reporting measurable rainfall yesterday, and it will be
even tougher today.

The upper ridge will continue to sink south and southwest today
and Saturday, with the axis from eastern New Mexico to the Florida
Panhandle by Saturday evening. This will continue to gradually dry
out the column over the next 36 hours. Precipitable water values
near 1.6 inches last night should dry out to 1.1 inches across the
north to about 1.5 across the south by Saturday afternoon. While
we can`t totally rule out a few showers or thunderstorms today, a
20 to 25 percent chance of measurable precipitation west of
Interstate 55 this afternoon is probably overstating things. Any
convection on Saturday is likely to remain offshore, and possibly
not even there.

As the atmosphere dries out over the next couple of days, cloud
cover will be more limited, and we should heat up a couple of
degrees from yesterday in most areas, and a couple degrees more on
Saturday. With slightly lower dew points expected, that should
keep heat index values between 100 and 107F, just below advisory
criteria of 108F.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The upper ridge will continue to work its way westward Sunday
through midweek, and be centered near the Arizona-New Mexico
border by Tuesday/Wednesday. As troughing develops near the
Atlantic Coast, that will up the local area in northwesterly mid
level flow by midweek. The eastward extension of the ridge axis
may keep any thunderstorm development isolated Monday afternoon,
but as we get into Tuesday and beyond, moisture levels are likely
to become sufficient enough for scattered thunderstorm
development. If there is going to be any concern for severe
weather or heavy rainfall, it wouldn`t occur much before Wednesday
or Thursday.

The larger concern for Sunday into at least the early portion of
the week will be the potential for heat related issues. With highs
well into the 90s, and moisture returning, heat index values look
to top out in the 105 to 110F range on Sunday in some areas, and
perhaps a few notches higher on Monday over a larger area. That
may necessitate Heat Advisories over portions of the area in later
forecasts. Beyond Monday, afternoon thunderstorms should have high
temperatures top out a few degrees lower than Sunday/Monday.
Didn`t depart very far from NBM deterministic highs, but did bump
up overnight lows a notch.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Prevailing VFR at all terminals right now, likely to continue
through the majority of the forecast period. Some very isolated
VCSH show up in some guidance, but did not include them due to the
lack of coverage. Into Friday afternoon, can`t rule out an
isolated storm with some thunder but not much confidence so did
not include it. Otherwise some gusts to around 15kts will be
possible during the day Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Wind speeds have relaxed below 20 knots across the open waters and
even lower over the protected waters. Have cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory over any remaining waters and replaced it with
Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines over primarily the western
open waters. Will leave the Coastal Flood Advisory in place
through the high tide cycle this afternoon, and let day shift take
a look at conditions this morning to see how extensive an area
may need one for Saturday`s high tide cycle, or whether it can be
eliminated entirely this afternoon. Once winds drop off this
afternoon, the only real concern for mariners will be the
potential for thunderstorms, and that should be rather limited
until perhaps Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  92  70  95  73 /  10   0   0   0
BTR  95  74  98  76 /  20  10  10   0
ASD  93  71  95  76 /  10   0  10   0
MSY  92  77  94  78 /  20   0  10   0
GPT  91  73  93  76 /  10   0  10   0
PQL  96  71  97  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058-
     060-066>070-076>078-080-082-084-086-087.

GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for
     MSZ086>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...RW