210
FXUS64 KLIX 141116
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
616 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Convective activity will remain suppressed today and tomorrow as
deep layer ridging becomes centered over the region. Very dry air
aloft associated with deep layer subsidence will effectively cap
off any rain chances over most of the forecast area, and PWATS
will fall to around an inch over northern zones and closer to 1.4
inches along the coast. These values are in the 10th to 25th
percentile for mid-June. Temperatures will also be warmer than
average with readings in the mid to upper 90s expected.
Fortunately, the drier air mixing down to to the surface will keep
dewpoints just low enough to produce heat index values of 100 to
105. These values are below our advisory criteria, but those who
are more susceptible to heat illness including children and the
elderly should limit time outdoors on Friday and Saturday.
Additionally, the lack of wind and the strong inversion will lead
to lower air quality today, and an air quality alert is in effect
for metro Baton Rouge, metro New Orleans, and the MS Gulf Coast.

The deep layer ridge axis will shift to the east of the area on
Sunday, and this will open the door for a plume of deeper tropical
moisture to begin feeding into the region. Sunday will see PWATS
rise back to average for mid-June, and this will allow for greater
convective activity from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.
PoP values will range from 30 to 50 percent north of I-10 and 50
to 70 percent south of I-10. The highest rain chances will be
along the immediate coast and offshore where the deepest moisture
is expected. The influence of the departing ridge will still be
felt, especially over northern zones, as drier air in the mid-
levels lingers. Downdraft CAPE values of 1000 to 1200 J/KG are
expected over the northern half of the CWA Sunday afternoon, and
there is the potential for a few wet microburst events to occur.
The strongest convective updrafts punching above 20k feet will
have the greatest potential for microburst development as dry air
entrainment into the updraft occurs. There will be some locally
higher rainfall rates Sunday into Sunday night, and this could
lead to some street flooding issues in poorly drained and low
lying areas. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal averages on
Sunday into Sunday night due to the increase in convective
coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

There has been little change in thinking from Monday through
Wednesday from previous forecasts. The region will remain on the
western periphery of a deep layer ridge and deep tropical moisture
will continue to feed into the region. PWATS will be in the 90th
percentile or higher each day with readings of between 2 and 2.25
inches expected. The result will be numerous showers and
thunderstorms forming each day as temperatures climb into the mid
to upper 80s. This is reflected by the high PoP values of 60 to
80 percent forecast each day. The convective activity will
decrease in coverage a bit each night as temperatures cool back
into the 70s, but will still be at least scattered in nature.
Storm motion will remain decent at 10 to 15 knots on Monday and
Tuesday with a further increase to around 20 knots on Wednesday.
However, very high rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour with
the strongest convection could lead to some localized flash
flooding issues each day next week. The highest threat will be for
urban drainage systems that could be easily overwhelmed by these
excessive rainfall rates.

Thursday will see a change in the pattern as the deep plume of
tropical moisture shifts toward Texas and an inverted trough axis
associated with a more easterly flow regime aloft begins to move
into the Gulf South. PWATS will decline back to more average
levels for mid-June, and this will result in convective coverage
becoming more scattered in nature. The decrease in convection and
cloud cover will also allow temperatures to climb back to more
normal levels in the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions and light winds are expected at all of the
terminals. Wind direction at NEW, GPT, MSY, and HUM will feel in
the influence of the sea-breeze and lake-breeze cycle with winds
shifting to the south after 15z and increasing in speed at HUM and
GPT and winds shift to the north and increasing in speed at MSY
and NEW. These winds will persist through 02z before turning more
variable as temperatures begin cooling after sunset.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A dry and stable high pressure system centered over the area will
keep VFR conditions and light winds in place at all of the
terminals. Wind direction at NEW, GPT, MSY, and HUM will feel in
the influence of the sea-breeze and lake-breeze cycle with winds
shifting to the south after 15z and increasing in speed at HUM and
GPT and winds shift to the north and increasing in speed at MSY
and NEW. These winds will persist through 02z before turning more
variable as temperatures begin cooling after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Benign conditions will remain in place across all of the waters
through tomorrow as high pressure remains centered directly over
the region. On Sunday, the high will shift to the east and a
developing area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche will lead
to a tighter pressure gradient across the northern Gulf. East and
southeast winds will be on the increase through the first half of
next week with prevailing small craft advisory conditions expected
over the open Gulf waters by Monday afternoon. A decent swell
train is expected form as these long fetch winds of 20 to 25 knots
extend from the eastern Gulf into the northern Gulf. This swell
will combine with the wind waves already in place to produce seas
of 7 to 10 feet in the open Gulf waters. Additionally, the
prolonged nature of these stronger onshore winds will lead to some
minor coastal flooding issues by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  95  71  98  73 /  10  10  10  10
BTR  95  74  97  75 /  10  10  10  10
ASD  96  74  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  93  78  95  79 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  93  77  95  79 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  94  74  95  76 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG