462
FXUS64 KLIX 250856
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
356 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Still watching a cold front to our north which hasn`t moved very
much over the last day or so. Eventually, the broader scale upper
trough will amplify further and it should bring the boundary
through the region. With the upper levels continuing to rapidly
cool, lapse rates will be on the favorable side for convective
development. The only limiting factor will be copious amounts of
dry air in the mid and upper levels that will only allow the
strongest updrafts through. That said, with the stronger updrafts
there could be an isolated strong to severe storm with large hail
(H5 temps around -11C) and strong winds (DCAPE exceeding 1000
J/KG) being the primary hazard.


Dry and a very slightly cooler air will begin to filter into the
region by Thursday. Carried POPs only for the far eastern MS Gulf
COast Counties and perhaps lower Plaquemines closer to the
frontal boundary. Temperatures both overnight and during the
daylight hours will be a degree or two below average...at least on
Thursday. Until the front slides through today temperatures will
continue to remain on the warmer/humid side. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

As TS Helene races northward toward the Panhandle of Florida the
568dam H5 low will center near Memphis. This will then take the
TC north and eventually perhaps northwestward once it reaches the
ENE or NE periphery of the ULL well inland. Being removed from the
TC there will be a good bit of subsidence on the far outer
periphery, which calls into question any POPs for this timeframe.
At this juncture, decided that with the elements that will keep
us on the dry side, removed all POPs outside of potential
diurnally driven marine convection.

By early next week the broader scale trough will final begin to
spread east of the region. With that ridging starts to nose in
from the west. This will increase heights and thicknesses, which
should warm us up a bit back to around or slightly above average
to start the month of October.  (Frye)


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Currently VFR at all forecast terminals. That being said,
certainly some potential for MVFR ceilings, as KREG is reporting
BKN025. A bit better chance for MVFR ceilings toward sunrise with
the approaching cold front from the north. Low level convergence
may be lacking somewhat along the front on Wednesday, so not
highly confident in convective development. Best chances may be
KMCB, KHDC, KASD, KGPT. Will carry VCTS at those, and VCSH
elsewhere or not at all. Main threat of precipitation, such as it
is, should be gone prior to 00z Thursday, with VFR conditions
beyond that point. Expect winds to increase somewhat beyond 00z
Thursday, but the only terminals that might see impacts during
this forecast package would be KNEW and perhaps KMSY, as cooler,
drier air mixes down over Lake Pontchartrain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Hazardous marine conditions will develop today as seas begin to
build in response to TS Helene moving northward from the western
portions of the Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico.
Additionally, despite the building seas, gradient winds will also
increase with some gale force gusts not out of the question.
Issued SCA for most waters including the tidal lakes. Gale Watches
are in effect for most of the offshore Gulf Waters. By Friday,
the storm will have moved well inland over Georgia...or points
well east of our region. Seas will begin to relax then and
especially going into the upcoming weekend. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  65  82  60 /  50  10  10   0
BTR  91  69  87  64 /  40  10   0   0
ASD  89  69  86  64 /  30  20  10  10
MSY  89  73  86  67 /  30  20  10   0
GPT  89  70  84  65 /  30  30  20  10
PQL  92  71  86  66 /  30  40  40  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Friday
     for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday
     for GMZ572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ572-
     575-577.

     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for
     GMZ572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Friday
     for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday
     for GMZ575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ575-
     577.

     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for
     GMZ575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF