Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
996 FXUS65 KLKN 070958 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 258 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Another upper-level disturbance and residual moisture will promote another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds and hail will be the primary threats. Active weather will continue through the weekend at least for northern Nevada with more daytime showers and thunderstorms before drier conditions settle in next week. Temperatures will remain above normal for the region with upper 80s to low 90s for highs. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night Atmospheric setup remains conducive for convection again this afternoon. Ample mid-level moisture with an upper-level wave moving through the region and daytime heating will allow for showers and thunderstorms across much of northern and eastern Nevada today. Today has the greatest chances for wetting rains (reaching or exceeding 0.10" of rain) across central and eastern Nevada today with 20-30% across much of Eureka, White Pine and Elko counties. Although the sub-cloud layer (below about 600 mb) is not quite as dry as yesterday, a few severe downburst winds are possible, especially in Elko county early this afternoon. Drier air ushered into west central Nevada today will reduce convection from west to east late this afternoon into the evening hours. Overall winds will be light under weak flow aloft and lack of surface pressure gradients. Temperatures will be hot in the pre- convective environment, rising into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Lows will be in the 50s with some lower 60s in lower valleys. .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday Sunday, a shortwave moves through Idaho and northern Nevada. Instability and moisture remains present for isolated to numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly north of and including the I-80 corridor. Model surface based CAPE and DCAPE are currently showing values over 1000 J/kg which could lead to an environment of gusty and erratic outflows winds, some of which could reach severe strength. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with lows in the 50s. Monday, some residual moisture and instability from the passing shortwave, may produce some isolated showers and storms across Eureka, White Pine and Elko counties during the afternoon. Elsewhere, quiet conditions are expected. Highs will generally be in the 80s with some areas pushing 90. Lows will be in the 50s. Tuesday through Friday, zonal flow will keep things relatively quiet, with dry conditions and highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Wednesday through Friday, winds will be breezy and out of the west during the afternoon 15-20 mph with locally higher gusts. Lows in the 50s. Some spread appears in the models Friday and beyond, however cluster analysis hints at some troughing possible which could signal a cool down of sorts. && .AVIATION...Thunderstorms will develop over much of the region again this afternoon, with the main concern being strong gusty winds of 50kts or more. Thunderstorm outflow winds may also produce blowing dust, with local reductions to VIS. With cloud bases up around 10-12k feet today, not expecting too much in the way of rain, though there is a chance of pea size to penny size hail. Storms are expected to diminish by the mid to late evening hours. The greatest chance for TS remains at KEKO and KELY at around 45% this afternoon with lesser chances west along I-80.and US-50. && .HYDROLOGY...Persistent above normal temperatures are expected to increase remaining snowpack melt on mountain tops. Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and Friday could produce wetting rains over the remaining snowpacks, leading to rapid increases in flows in some of the creeks and streams. The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to slowly rise but remain in action stage for the next several days. Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. Lamoille Creek continues to trend upward with diurnal fluctuations in height between action stage and minor flood stage. Additional snow melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille Creek near or above minor flood stage this evening. Jarbidge River is forecast to slowly rise but remain in action stage over the next few days. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 93/91/96