Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
381 FXUS65 KLKN 190854 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 154 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather today and Friday with light rain and isolated thunderstorms in reponse to an upper cut-off low influencing the region. Period of dry weather begins Saturday with warmer temperatures by early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night Deep upper cut-off low continues to move south-southeast along the coast this morning. Latest numerical solutions indicate the low to move inland along the U.S./Mexico border Friday morning, residing over Arizona by sunrise Saturday. The progression of the low places Nevada under southerly mid level flow today, with flow becoming northerly by Friday night. This set up, along with modest PWATs of around a half inch, will bring spotty light rain showers to the forecast area along with relatively weak isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Activity dissipates tongiht though returns Friday afternoon for central Nevada with northern Nevada looking to remain dry under mostly sunny skies with a few daytime cumulus overhead. Given the modest moisture profiles, significant rain accumulation is not expected and wetting rains (rainfall totals 0.10" or greater) will be difficult to come by over the two day period. Light to breezy winds present during the afternoon and evening both days. Southerlies across central Nevada today with gusts around 20 mph while northerly to variable light winds reside across northern Nevada with gusts around 15 mph. Northerlies across the forecast area Friday with gusts 20-25 mph. Look for daytime high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s with overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s both days. The typical colder valleys likely observe low 30s, warranting protection for gardens or sensitive outdoor plants as patchy frost is expected. && .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday. High pressure off the California coast will bring a dry, northwesterly flow over our CWA from Saturday through Monday. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s this weekend and on Monday, and overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Saturday and Sunday night, warming to the lower 40s on Monday night as the high reaches the west coast of the U.S. The ridge axis will be positioned over our CWA on Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in highs warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s on Tuesday night. Lows on Wednesday night will reach the mid to upper 40s. By Thursday, the high pressure system will weaken and move out of our area, but highs are expected to remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions and light winds (below 10kts) are expected at all terminal today. An upper level low along the central CA coast this morning will move SE through the day, centering along the southern CA coastline tonight. Northern and central NV will be mostly cloudy today, with isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly south of KWMC and KBAM and north of KTPH. Clearing skies tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure system passing to the south of the region will create chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms in portions of central and northern Nevada Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorms will diminish after sunset Thursday night and thunderstorm activity on Friday will be confined to mainly N. Nye and White Pine counties in the afternoon as the low moves away to the east. That said, any accumulations will be modest and wetting rains are generally not expected. Afternoon wind gusts on Friday will be in the 20-25 mph range for northern Nevada but wetter surface relative humidity values behind the storm systems of this week do not present critical fire weather concerns. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 92/96/96/99