Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
518 FXUS65 KLKN 200851 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 151 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system passing to the south of the region will help to increase shower and thunderstorm activity in northeastern Nye and White Pine counties on Friday. Otherwise, fair weather is in store for the rest of central and northern Nevada as high pressure builds into the SW CONUS over the weekend. Despite northwesterly winds behind the low pressure system colder temperatures are not expected as the ridge builds in quickly and daytime highs Friday and Saturday remain in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM...A low pressure system slowly meandering through the state of California early Friday morning will create enough instability over the Silver State to promote scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity over central and eastern Nevada. The low will pass to the south of the CWA through southern Nevada on Friday. Southerly flow in the eastern flank of the trough will push enough moisture up into central and eastern Nevada to increase shower and thunderstorm activity over northeastern Nye and White Pine counties Friday afternoon. Model disagreement on how unstable the atmosphere will be for this convective area remains as GFS downplays CAPE values (40-80 J/kg) while NAM holds much better CAPE (100-300 J/kg) and LI (-2) over a larger spatial area Friday evening. Moisture availability is a little more consistent signaling PWAT values in the .40-.50 inch range Friday afternoon. Convective activity will be mainly dry over that area will minimal QPF probabilities in model guidance. Despite northwesterly flow in the upstream flow of the trough over the state by late Friday night into Saturday, temperature will not nosedive as ridging builds quickly into the region by the low pressure system. 500-mb heights begin to rise back into the 580s by Saturday afternoon so the temperature drop associated with the LPS will be negligible as high temperatures in the upper 70s Friday only regress back into the low to mid 70s on Saturday. Overnight lows into the mid to upper 30s will create areas of frost for higher elevations both Friday and Saturday night. The building ridge over the SW CONUS will signal fair weather for Nevada through the rest of the weekend. .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday. Dry weather along with light west to northwest winds expected this weekend. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. By early to mid next week, a ridge of high pressure builds over the western U.S. Highs will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows in the 40s. The ridge axis will push eastward by Thursday in response to a low pressure system moving into the west coast. Warm and dry weather will persist over the region into late next week. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Sunny skies this morning give way to partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. There will be a 15% chance of thunderstorms at KELY this afternoon and early evening and a 10% chance at KTPH. Precipitation from any thunderstorms would be very light, possibly only virga. The main concern would be gusty outflow winds to 40 kts. Mostly sunny and dry over the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER...A closed upper low pressure system in southern California will be working its way east today, slowly moving across into Arizona on Saturday. Central Nevada will be on the northern fringes of this system. Limited moisture and instability will help bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to portions of fire zones 425, 426, and 427 today and tomorrow. For the rest of the area, look for partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds are expected to remain light with occasional gusts to 20 mph in the afternoon. The system will be east of the area on Saturday, with high pressure slowly building in from the west. This will result in seasonable temperatures and dry conditions. A weak upper level trough may bring mid-clouds to portions of eastern Nevada late Monday and Tuesday but computer simulations are in disagreement with the timing and position. Even so, there doesn`t appear to be any fire weather impacts seen at this time through next week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 99/EB/96/86