748
FXUS65 KLKN 090952
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
252 AM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of
central and northeastern Nevada this afternoon. Gusty outflow
winds, brief moderate to heavy rainfall and cloud to ground
lightning are primary threats. A weak cold front pushing through
the area tonight will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the
northern Nevada Monday with highs mainly in the 80s. Shower
coverage will be even less Monday afternoon with drier and hot
conditions settling back into the region Tuesday persisting
through late this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected again this
afternoon across sections of central and eastern/northeastern
Nevada. Convection across central Nevada will be on the drier side
as moisture begins to get scoured out as a trough to the north of
the Great Basin moves eastward. The best convective environment
will be across northern ELko county where there is a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms, mainly a wind threat posed by
thunderstorm outflow winds. The trough moving into the northern
Rockies will also promote elevated winds across much of central
and northern Nevada today and this evening as weak cold front
moves through northern Nevada late today into tonight. A drier air
mass behind the front will allow for cooler overnight lows in the
50s for many valleys tonight.

Residual atmospheric moisture and daytime heating should spark off
only a few showers and thunderstorms across eastern Nevada Monday
afternoon but overall Monday will signal a return to dry
conditions and warm temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s. With
less cloud cover, temperatures should fall into the lower to mid
50s across northeastern Nevada.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday.

Closed low looks to be situated along the coast of SoCal Tuesday
with generally zonal flow over the forecast area. This will make
for dry and relatively benign weather with typical afternoon
breezes present. Afternoon cumulus also expected to be around the
region with PWAT values remaining modest, currently progged to
reside under 0.50 for the period. Numerical guidance indicates
that the closed low will progress inland Thursday while also
weakening into an open wave. The wave is indicated to reside over
the four corners region by Friday night. There is low confidence
however that this progression will bring any appreciable change to
the weather over northern and central Nevada. A more potent trof
and attendant surface cold front look to move into the forecast
area from the northwest Sunday, bringing stronger winds and higher
probabilities of precipitation for some portions of the forecast
area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all
terminals. Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Sunday
morning and early afternoon across northern NV, including near
KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO. Potential impacts will include gusty and
erratic outflow winds up to 40kts or more. Storms are expected to
diminish by the mid to late evening hours.

Additionally, breezy winds from the W-NW expected to affect
northern TAF sites and out of the south at KELY and KTPH,
increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots during late
morning and early afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Above normal temperatures are expected to increase
remaining snowpack melt on mountain tops. Showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and Sunday will mostly be limited in
rainfall so a significant rain on snow situation is not expected.

The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to slowly
rise but remain in action stage for the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the
next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues with diurnal fluctuations in height
between action stage but below minor flood stage. Additional snow
melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille Creek
near or above minor flood stage in the next several days.

The Jarbidge River is trending lows but is expected to remain in
action stage at least through today.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

93/92/90