Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
818 FXUS65 KLKN 232018 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 118 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Fair weather continues thru the end of the week across the forecast area as upper ridging and high pressure build over Nevada. Only item of note is southwesterly breezes expected for Wednesday afternoon in response to an upper feature skirting northern Nevada. Otherwise temperatures remain warm but generally seasonable. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday Night High pressure continues to build over northern and central Nevada tonight with dry weather continuing and light to calm winds present under mostly clear skies. Overnight low temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than last night with most residing in the mid 30s to mid 40s. The typical colder valleys will reside in the low 30s. On Tuesday, a progressive upper wave pattern moves the upper ridge and high pressure east and into the Rockies as a trof and attendant surface cold front encroach upon the west coast. Trof and front will be positioned offshore of the PacNW by sunrise Wednesday. That said, no significant change is expected in the realm of sensible weather Tuesday and Tuesday night. Dry conditions under mostly sunny and clear skies prevail along with generally light winds. Daytime high temperatures will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with overnight lows mostly in the upper 30s to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday Southwesterly flow expected as high pressure is displaced east due to an advancing upper trough and cold front. Winds will be breezy, with gusts around 25 mph expected across the area. Conditions remain clear and dry, with daytime highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s. The trough will continue to move through the area Thursday with the cold front brushing northern Nevada before upper level flow transitions to a generally zonal pattern. Temperatures cool slightly Thursday but remain slightly above average through the weekend. Conditions will remain dry through the end of the week. Models are continuing to show an upper trough approaching from the west in the Sunday time frame but discrepancies in the timing and location continue to cause high uncertainty in the forecast. The only impacts currently expected are breezy winds in the afternoon on Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites for the next 24 hours. Generally light winds expected. && .FIRE WEATHER...Fair and dry weather present thru Tuesday as high pressure remains in control with generally light winds under mostly sunny and clear skies. Progressive upper pattern moves the area of high pressure east over the Rockies with an upper trof and surface cold front positioned along the coast of the PacNW by sunrise Wednesday. No precipitation expected, and main effect will be increased southwesterly winds by the afternoon. Southwesterly breezes with gusts around 25 mph combine with afternoon minimum RHs around 15% or less to produce elevated fire weather conditions. Dry and fair weather returns Thursday and persists thru the end of the week as upper flow becomes weakly zonal in wake of the trof and frontal boundary as they move thru the PacNW, skirting northern Nevada. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 92/94/94/92