442
FXUS65 KLKN 231033
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
333 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with well above normal temperatures through
Monday. Southwesterly winds will become breezy across much of
northern and portions of central NV this afternoon. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night. Increasing southwesterly
flow aloft today with mostly sunny skies and temperatures
remaining 10-15 degrees above normal. There is a Heat Advisory in
effect today (through Wednesday evening) for eastern Elko county
which includes Wendover. Highs today will be well above normal
across the region, however in eastern Elko county the overnight
lows will not drop below 70 degrees which will limit relief from
the hot afternoon conditions.

Winds this afternoon will be breezy over much of the region, with
strongest winds of 10-20mph gusting to 35 mph over portions of
Humboldt and northern Elko counties. The remainder of Elko county
and all of central NV will have lighter SW wind of generally
10-15 mph gusting 15 to 25 mph this afternoon and early evening.

Not too much change in temperatures on Monday. There will however
be some increased clouds over central NV Monday afternoon. For now
not expecting any storms to develop on Monday, however the latest
couple model runs do show slight increases to moisture and
instability creeping up into east-central NV. For now
thunderstorms on Monday look to be a little south and east of
White Pine county.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday

The Silver State continues to remain between two major upper
level features as the first week of Summer begins. The first main
upper level feature is the upper level troughing over the Canadian
Maritime, shortwave working through the strong westerly flow will
help drive the occasional front into northern Nevada during the
week but not really affecting temperatures. The second feature is
a strong subtropical ridge of high pressure that will meander
between New Mexico and the Rio Grande valley of western Texas. The
surface component of this feature is the moist monsoonal flow
that will continue to drift north over the four corners. This
moisture will very slow work westward during the week, helping
enhance the mid level moisture across Nevada. For Tuesday this
flow will first help develop some convective buildups and perhaps
occasional virga with an occasional lightning strike. By Wednesday
two key changes help focus the mid level moisture the upper ridge
will shift west help guide the moist flow into NV, and second,
moisture will be concentrated by a weak shortwave trough
transiting the southwesterly flow. This shortwave will push a
boundary into central NV allowing for a low chance for a mix of
dry and wet thunderstorms across eastern NV Wednesday evening.
Models have become a bit more bullish on precipitation, favoring
more wet storm modes. But have also been quicker with the frontal
passage which now may keep Thursday on the dry side. By Friday the
trough and the ridge move east with the trough and front pushing
the mid level moisture out of the area again, leaving quiet
conditions for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will begin the
week in the upper 80s to upper 90s, running about 10+ degrees
above normal. Temperatures will cool a bit across northern Nevada
with the passage of a front Friday into the upper 70s to upper
80s. Central Nevada will not feel any relief as highs remain in
the upper 80s to upper 90s. Highs across the north will recover
quickly back into the mid 80s to mid 90s by the weekend as the
upper ridge shifts slightly westward. Overnight lows will also
start above normal in the low 50s to 60s, a brief cool down into
the mid 40s to mid 50s Friday across the north before returning to
the low 50s to low 60s for the weekend. Winds for the extended
will be generally out of the west to WSW for the week at 5 MPH to
15 MPH with the occasional gust up to 25 MPH. Winds will pick up
across the north Thursday and Friday as the front moves through,
with W to WNW winds of 10 MPH to 25 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions and dry weather are expected at all
terminals over the next 24 hours. Southwesterly breezes this
afternoon will be the main concern with gusts 20KTS to 25KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions continue across the region
today with afternoon highs generally in the 90s. Across central
NV zones, SW winds of 7-17mph with gusts to 25mph are expected
this afternoon. Northern NV zones will have stronger SW winds of
10-20mph gusting 20-30mph today. Higher terrain in zones 437 and
438 may see wind gusts up to 35 mph this afternoon and early
evening.

Well above normal temperatures continue on Monday, with weak
instability pushing up into portions of east-central NV. At this
time only expecting afternoon cumulus build-ups over zone 425
Monday afternoon. However, latest model runs have been trending
moisture and instability slightly higher over east-central NV for
Monday afternoon. Should this trend continue there may be enough
instability for a few lightning strikes over or near Great Basin
National Park. At this time however no thunderstorms are forecast
in any zones today or on Monday. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are looking increasingly possible on Tuesday, and
likely on Wednesday for many zones.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Temperatures remain well above normal today and into
next week. Rises on some area streams and creeks coming off
higher terrain are expected over the next few days, but for now
not expecting any new flooding as the snowpack is greatly
diminished.

Wildhorse Reservoir water level remains elevated from the spring
snowmelt.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT Wednesday
Southeastern Elko County.

&&

$$

96/98/92/96