818
FXUS65 KLKN 232018
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
118 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Fair weather continues thru the end of the week
across the forecast area as upper ridging and high pressure build
over Nevada. Only item of note is southwesterly breezes expected
for Wednesday afternoon in response to an upper feature skirting
northern Nevada. Otherwise temperatures remain warm but generally
seasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday Night

High pressure continues to build over northern and central Nevada
tonight with dry weather continuing and light to calm winds
present under mostly clear skies. Overnight low temperatures will
be a few degrees warmer than last night with most residing in the
mid 30s to mid 40s. The typical colder valleys will reside in the
low 30s.

On Tuesday, a progressive upper wave pattern moves the upper
ridge and high pressure east and into the Rockies as a trof and
attendant surface cold front encroach upon the west coast. Trof
and front will be positioned offshore of the PacNW by sunrise
Wednesday. That said, no significant change is expected in the
realm of sensible weather Tuesday and Tuesday night. Dry
conditions under mostly sunny and clear skies prevail along with
generally light winds. Daytime high temperatures will be in the
mid 70s to mid 80s with overnight lows mostly in the upper 30s to
upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday

Southwesterly flow expected as high pressure is displaced east due
to an advancing upper trough and cold front. Winds will be breezy,
with gusts around 25 mph expected across the area. Conditions
remain clear and dry, with daytime highs in the upper 70s to upper
80s. The trough will continue to move through the area Thursday
with the cold front brushing northern Nevada before upper level
flow transitions to a generally zonal pattern. Temperatures cool
slightly Thursday but remain slightly above average through the
weekend. Conditions will remain dry through the end of the week.

Models are continuing to show an upper trough approaching from the
west in the Sunday time frame but discrepancies in the timing and
location continue to cause high uncertainty in the forecast. The
only impacts currently expected are breezy winds in the afternoon
on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites for the next
24 hours. Generally light winds expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Fair and dry weather present thru Tuesday as high
pressure remains in control with generally light winds under
mostly sunny and clear skies. Progressive upper pattern moves the
area of high pressure east over the Rockies with an upper trof and
surface cold front positioned along the coast of the PacNW by
sunrise Wednesday. No precipitation expected, and main effect will
be increased southwesterly winds by the afternoon. Southwesterly
breezes with gusts around 25 mph combine with afternoon minimum
RHs around 15% or less to produce elevated fire weather
conditions. Dry and fair weather returns Thursday and persists
thru the end of the week as upper flow becomes weakly zonal in
wake of the trof and frontal boundary as they move thru the PacNW,
skirting northern Nevada.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

92/94/94/92