886
FXUS65 KLKN 081929
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1229 PM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 PM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025

* Red Flag Warning today for Central Nevada

* Red Flag Warning Wednesday for Northeastern Nevada

* Near triple digit heat in the valleys of Northern and Central
  Nevada each afternoon Sunday through next Tuesday

* Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon Sunday
  through next Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1214 PM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
The forecast area will be situated between high pressure over the
Desert Southwest and an upper-level area of low pressure just off
the coast of Northern California today. Southwest wind gusts near
30 mph are expected in Central Nevada this afternoon into this
evening. The aforementioned cyclone aloft will open up into a
trough of low pressure over Northern California Wednesday morning.
This trough of low pressure will move eastward across Northern
Nevada Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Southwest to west
wind gusts near 35 mph are anticipated in Northeastern Nevada
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

Zonal flow aloft will prevail Thursday. An area of high pressure
over Southern California will build northward Friday into early
next week, resulting in a warming trend. High temperatures each
afternoon Sunday through next Tuesday will be around five degrees
above normal for this time of year, resulting in a moderate risk
for heat-related illnesses. Although heat events like this are
relatively common and happen many times a year, heat-related
impacts are possible for those new to the area if simple
precautions are not taken. Here are probabilities of triple digit
heat for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on
Monday, July 14th, 2025:

Winnemucca - 85%
Battle Mountain - 80%
Crescent Valley - 80%
Gabbs - 65%
Elko - 60%
Carlin - 60%
West Wendover - 60%
Denio - 50%
Tonopah - 45%
Spring Creek - 15%

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
High forecast confidence regarding a critical risk of wildfires in
Central Nevada today. High forecast confidence in a critical risk
of wildfires in Northeastern Nevada Wednesday. Moderate forecast
confidence regarding near triple digit heat in the valleys of
Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon Sunday through next
Tuesday. Medium forecast confidence in a moderate risk for heat-
related illnesses each afternoon Sunday through next Tuesday. No
deviations from the NBM model output.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions at all sites through the next 24 hours. Gusts
20-30KT expected at all sites except KENV through this evening. No
weather or visibility concerns are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Near and critical fire weather conditions continue today, with a
Red Flag Warning in place for zones 425/6/7 today and 425/38/69/70
tomorrow due to winds over 30 mph and single digit min Rhs.
Conditions are expected to return to elevated status on Thursday
as winds finally decrease, and will remain there for the rest of
the week.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday
NVZ425-438-469-470.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ425>427.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94