916
FXUS65 KLKN 160941
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
241 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A strong early fall low pressure system will have a
multi-pronged impact on the the region early in the work week.
Accumulating shower and thunderstorm activity over central Nevada
and Humboldt county Monday morning will become more widespread by
Monday afternoon. Ahead of the cold front strong southerly winds
over the region have prompted a wind advisory in White Pine and
northeastern Nye county where sustained winds of 25-30 mph with
gusts between 40-45 mph are possible Monday afternoon. While the
cold front will push through the state slowly over the course of
Monday evening and Monday night precipitation will linger into the
morning hours on Tuesday. 0.5-0.75 inch accumulations are possible
in Humboldt, Lander, Eureka, Elko and extreme western Nye county
through Tuesday afternoon. White Pine will end up on the drier end
with only 0.05 -0.20 inches possible. Higher elevations around
8,500 feet and above should see snowfall with this system. Behind
the front colder temperatures on northwesterly winds will drop
overnight lows Tuesday morning into the 30s for much of the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A very active start to the week as a lumbering but
strong low pressure system will impact the Silver State with high
winds, a wide range of precipitation accumulations, and
ultimately colder temperatures. Monday morning precipitation over
mainly the western extents of the CWA will increase in coverage
into central and northeastern Nevada over the course of the day.
Morning accumulations ranging from 0.25-0.5 inches are possible in
Humboldt, Lander, and western Nye counties. As the low moves into
the State by early afternoon better moisture availability and
vorticity values seen previously over western and west central
Nevada will become more widespread across the region. Ultimately,
accumulation values will come down to how slow or fast the low
progresses across the state though model guidance currently does
not promote a speedy transit to the east.

The tight pressure gradient of the system will produce strong
southerly flow, especially across central and eastern Nevada on
Monday. Sustained winds of 25-30 mph with gusts between 40-45 mph
are possible Monday afternoon in White Pine and northeastern Nye
counties where a Wind Advisory will be in effect from 10AM Monday
morning until 8PM Monday evening. Along and ahead of the boundary
convection is possible with CAPE values reaching into the 500 J/kg
range and LI values of -4 signaling favorable instability. Model
guidance Monday evening features lapse rates over Elko county as
high as 9.5C/km and SPC has eastern portions of the county in
Marginal Risk for potential strong winds accompanying storms in
the northeast portion of the state.

The associated cold front will slowly drag west to east across the
CWA Monday evening. Behind the front precipitation will continue
into early Tuesday afternoon though the convective component looks
to diminish with frontal passage. Brisk north-westerlies in the
post frontal regime of the system will drop overnight lows Tuesday
morning down into the low to mid 30s for the eastern half of the
state. Humboldt county lows will be slightly warmer in the low to
mid 40s as post frontal winds there will have subsided by Tuesday
AM. Higher elevations in the CWA will see snowfall in locations
above approximately 8,500 feet. Most snowfall accumulations will
be modest in the trace to 4 inch range though ranges in western
Nye county could see significantly more depending on how quickly
the low moves into and out of the state and how long available
moisture remains over western Nye county through Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday
A trough of low pressure will bring rain showers for our area on
Wednesday and Thursday as it deepens and moves east. Isolated
thunderstorms possible for eastern White Pine County on Thursday. Drier
conditions from Friday until next Monday as the low weakens and
moves out of the area. Winds will be light, with a dry west to
northwesterly flow over NV. A warming trend will occur from
Thursday to Sunday, with temperatures rising 3-5 degrees on
average each day until Sunday. Temperatures will remain in the mid
to upper 70s on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...An upper level low moving in over NV today will bring
periods of rain, possibly heavy at time to KWMC KBAM KEKO AND
KTPH. There is a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms today across the
region with gusty outflow winds to 50 mph possible. Strongest
winds will be across east-central NV this afternoon and evening,
with southerly winds of 15 to 25kt gusting to 45kts at KELY.
Thunderstorms diminish later this evening with scattered showers
lingering over portions of northern NV, including KWMC and KBAM
tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A strong pressure gradient associated with a low
pressure system impacting Nevada on Monday will bring strong
southerly winds to the region out ahead of an advancing cold
front. High wind speeds prompt a Wind Advisory in northeastern Nye
and White Pine county where 25-30 sustained winds are possible
with gusts into the 40-45 mph range. Low relative humidity will
not be an issue as the system increases moisture availability
across the state Monday, but pre-existing fires such as the Broom
Canyon Fire straddling the Nye/White Pine county line in east-
central Nevada may see potential extreme fire behavior Monday
afternoon associated with the high winds. The Wind Advisory will
be in place from 10AM Monday morning through 8PM Monday evening. A
brief respite from wet, windy weather takes place on Tuesday
before another storm system moves into the area from the
northwest. Shower and thunderstorm activity is possible with this
system as well though dry thunderstorms are not anticipated at
this time as the moisture profile for the area is sufficient
enough to produce another round of wetting rains.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
Northeastern Nye County...White Pine County.

&&

$$

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