538
FXUS63 KLMK 141709
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
109 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible early this morning
    and again this afternoon.

*   Above normal temperatures expected Sunday into next week. Spotty
    showers and storms possible next week as well, though confidence
    in their development remains low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1051 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A frontal boundary currently draped across northern Indiana into
southern Illinois will gradually push through the region today. We
may see very isolated showers/storms develop across the region this
afternoon as the front pushes southeastward, though the vast
majority of people will stay dry. Forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Early morning satellite imagery reveals partly cloudy skies across
the region.  Quite a bit of high level cloud debris were noted
across the region associated with a line of weakening convection
across IN/OH.  Convective outflows from previous convection have
worked southward and have kicked off some isolated-scattered
convection across portions of SE IN and across the northern
Bluegrass region of central KY.  Temperatures were mild with most
sites seeing temps in the low-mid-60s, though the higher ridge tops
were in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  For the remainder of the
overnight, the best chances of convection will be north of the I-64
corridor where aforementioned convective outflows may kick off some
additional convection.  HRRR and NAM3K solutions show this well and
this activity looks to die off between 14/10-12Z.  Across the
southern half of KY, no precipitation is expected, but some river
valley fog will be possible through sunrise.

Moving into the daylight hours, surface cold front will push into
southern IN this morning and then into north Kentucky this
afternoon.  Southerly flow ahead of the front will allow some low-
level moisture to pool ahead of the front.  By mid-late afternoon,
some scattered convection may develop along the front.  The best
instability and dynamics will be displaced from our region, with the
greater instability to our west, and better shear/dynamical/synoptic
scale support to our east/northeast.  Model soundings still show
about 1000-1500 J/kg of SB/MLCAPE developing with about 25-30kts of
bulk shear.  Current thinking is that best convective coverage will
be across our east-central CWA, between Louisville and Lexington
down into south-central KY.  Storms could contain gusty winds,
torrential downpours and frequent/intense CG lightning.  QPF amounts
will be low, but storms could produce very localized 0.25-0.50"
amounts.  Highs on the day will be similar to Thursday with readings
in the 85-90 degree range.

Surface front is expected to push southward during the evening and
convection will diminish rapidly with the setting sun.  Cool
advection will build across the region with overnight lows dipping
into the lower 60s across southern IN and north-central/east-central
KY.  Across southern KY, lows will be in the mid-upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

By the start of the weekend, upper ridging will be over the Lower
Ohio and Mississippi Valleys as upper high pressure sets up over the
Southeast. Surface high pressure, centered over the Great Lakes,
will keep northeast winds over southern Indiana and central
Kentucky, so even with all the sunshine, cold air advection will
keep highs limited to the "cool" mid 80s to near 90 farther south,
near Bowling Green.

By Sunday, upper flow around the ridge will push the aforementioned
surface high farther to the east. This will bring return flow back
to the CWA, and warm air advection with sunny skies will lift high
temperatures into the mid to upper 90s (for most places) for the
rest of the week. Most nights this week, lows will only fall into
the upper 60s to low 70s.

Most of the models try to produce some isolated to scattered
precipitation in the area sometime between Monday and Tuesday as low
level flow funnels moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward. This
could be possible, but a lot of times when you have this pattern
with high pressure parked over the Southeast, the high persists for
longer than models convey. Things tend to run drier for longer with
models pushing off precipitation chances as each day passes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Mostly VFR conditions expected through the period. A very weak
frontal boundary is pushing into the region, shifting winds from the
southwest to the north. A very isolated storm or two will be
possible as the front pushes through the region, though coverage of
any shower/storm activity will be very limited and not high enough
to warrant mention in TAF. If a storm were to impact a TAF site,
expect briefly reduced cigs/vis. Shower/Storm chances should subside
near sunset.

Overnight into tomorrow, winds will gradually veer from the north to
the east. Skies should be mostly clear during this timeframe and
winds generally under 10kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DM
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...DM