083
FXUS63 KLMK 180542
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
142 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024


...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Sporadic showers east of I-65 through the early overnight hours.
   Little to no accumulations expected.

*  Summer-like warmth returns for late week into the weekend with
   highs well above seasonal normals. Dry weather also looks likely
   until late in the weekend or early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Quick update to tweak hourly PoPs through Midnight to best capture
ongoing radar trends in east-central KY. Just have a couple
lingering areas of light rain near Frankfort/west of Lawrenceburg
and also near Berea and Crab Orchard. These showers are still
expected to diminish within the next hour or two. Cannot rule out a
stray isolated shower overnight, though mainly dry conditions are
expected.

Issued at 642 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Scattered light rain and sprinkles are ongoing, mainly from the I-65
corridor eastward. A steadier band of light rain that pushed west
across Edmonson, Hart, Grayson, Hardin, and Bullitt counties is now
weakening as it attempts to push into drier low-level air to the
west. These areas along the I-65 corridor plus areas to the
northeast across north-central KY and the Bluegrass will have the
best chance at off and on light rain or sprinkles through this
evening. Expect this precip to gradually diminish over the next few
hours though.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Area of low pressure continues to spin over the Carolinas this
afternoon, sending spiral bands of sporadic rain showers toward the
region. Forecast soundings show some fairly dry air below 700mb that
the rain is having a hard time overcoming, with most accumulating
rains mainly impacting areas along the I-75 corridor points
eastward. Even then, rainfall amounts within the eastern CWA have
been fairly light up to this point.

The low pressure will slowly weaken and wobble around the Carolinas
overnight into tomorrow and shift slightly to the east. This will
result in a slow drying trend for our east, though clouds and even
some low level moisture will work in to the area toward dawn. Some
guidance depicts stratus and/or fog to develop across portions of
the region east of I-65. Tomorrow will be another challenging
temperature forecast as clouds associated with the area of low
pressure continue to impact the eastern half of the region. Can`t
rule out some rogue showers making it toward the I-75 corridor, but
compared to today, coverage should be less overall.

On a personal note, this is my last forecast shift with NWS
Louisville. It has been an honor and privilege to work with the NWS
Louisville team and provide forecast services and warnings to the
great folks of southern Indiana and central Kentucky for over 7
years now. This region has some very unique forecast challenges that
will keep just about any meteorologist humble... particularly in the
winter when trying to forecast snow amounts or guessing where the
winter p-type transition zones will set up :) I`ve learned a lot
from my time out here, and worked a wide variety of wild weather
(including the December `21 Tornado Outbreak) that I`ll never
forget. Thank you NWS Louisville and the folks of this area to make
me and my family feel at home all of the years we`ve been out
here... makes it tough to say goodbye!

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

By Wednesday night, the upper low which has brought tropical
rainfall to the Carolinas and light rainfall to parts of eastern and
central Kentucky will begin to wobble back to the east toward the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Decreasing clouds Wednesday evening combined
with light winds from a weak pressure gradient should allow for
efficient cooling into Thursday morning. Patchy fog will be possible
across the area Thursday morning, with a particular focus in areas
which receive rain over the next 24 hours in addition to valleys and
bodies of water.

Thursday through much of the weekend is expected to bring quiet and
unseasonably warm weather to the region. As the aforementioned upper
low moves gradually into North Atlantic, upper ridging initially
over the southern Plains will spread eastward across the Ohio
Valley, with heights and temperatures increasing steadily from
Thursday through at least Saturday. Ensemble mean 850 mb
temperatures exceed the 90th percentile of climatology across the
Miss. Valley on Friday, with this area spreading across most of
central KY and southern IN for Saturday and Sunday. As a result,
above normal temperatures, particularly afternoon highs, are
expected from Thursday through the weekend. With the upper ridge
blocking moist return flow, temperatures should still be able to
cool off fairly easily at night, with lows being slightly more
seasonable.

The lack of much moisture return will also keep precipitation
chances low from Thursday through Saturday, with dry weather
persisting during this time period. By Sunday into early next week,
an approaching low-amplitude upper trough should start to cut into
the upper ridge overhead, bringing a sfc cold front close to the
area by early next week. The timing of this system is quite variable
among different ensemble members, with the reintroduction of rain
chances and the arrival of somewhat cooler temperatures ranging from
Sunday to the middle of next week. The preponderance of ensemble
guidance suggests that we should remain dry and warm into Sunday as
well, though the minority of ensembles which do have precipitation
result in a somewhat cooler forecast in the NBM by Sunday.

As we head into early next week, a somewhat more unsettled pattern
is expected as the aforementioned front lingers about the Ohio
Valley. It is too soon to tell for sure what precipitation chances
will be like with this system, though most ensembles suggest
relatively modest precipitation chances and amounts. Temperatures
would also be favored to cool slightly with the additional clouds
and moisture, as well as the potential that the cold front makes it
through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The bulk of the light and scattered showers appear to have come to
an end and outside the development of an isolated shower/sprinkle
the remainder of the early morning hours should be dry. There
remains some low-level moisture associated with a stalled upper low
currently over the southeastern US. There were marginal MVFR CIG for
BWG, could see this through the rest of the pre-dawn hours to just
after daybreak. VFR flight categories likely will return for all TAF
sites during the morning with light northeast winds and mainly SCT
to at times BKN CIGs.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...BTN