769
FXUS63 KLMK 100154
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
954 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Showers and isolated thunderstorms over south-central Kentucky
    ending before sunset.

*   Below normal temperatures and humidity Monday and Tuesday,
    followed by a warming trend with hot and dry conditions likely
    for late this week into next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

High pressure, behind the cold front that is now south of the
region, is bringing clearer skies to southern Indiana and central
Kentucky, and as winds ease, temperatures will begin falling into
the 50s. Dry air should help limit fogging in most places across
southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, but across south
central Kentucky patchy fog was added to the forecast. With the
dropping temperatures from mostly clear skies and earlier rainfall,
fog will become more likely across the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Sfc cold front is near the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways
as of 18Z, and slowly but surely making its way southward through
the Commonwealth. Mid-level impulse has triggered a cluster of
moderate showers with embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms,
currently moving through south-central Kentucky. Mesonet
observations show up to 1 inch of rain in 3 hrs, not enough to
support any significant flooding. Could continue to see scattered
showers across southern Kentucky until around sunset, after which
the cold front should be far enough south to keep any additional
precip down across the Tennessee Valley.

Northerly flow ahead of building high pressure will be just enough
to advect dry low-level air into the Ohio Valley tonight. Even as
sfc winds decouple, expect the dry air to win out and limit any fog
formation to the valleys.

Cool pattern continues on Monday with another vort lobe swinging
through the broad eastern CONUS upper trof. Synoptic models are
trying to spit out some light QPF, but think the impact will be
limited to diurnal Cu. Temps solidly below normal, with mins tonight
in the 50s and Monday highs in the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Dry weather will prevail throughout the long term period, however we
will see temperatures creep up into the 90s by late-week. Upper flow
aloft will become more zonal for the mid-week after an East Coast
trough pushes out to sea. Sfc high pressure will dominate the region
for several days, with rather dry columns and subsidence keeping us
dry and rain-free. Temperatures will reach the 90s for Thursday and
into the weekend as sfc high pressure shifts to our east and
promotes a warm return flow into the region.

On Friday, a low-amplitude upper shortwave in the northern stream
will ride across the US/Canada border, and will essentially push a
cold front southward through the Ohio Valley. However, the sfc high
to our southeast will have enough dry air in place to erode PoPs
just to our north.

The hot weather will continue into the weekend with highs in the low
90s. Fortunately, our dewpoints will be in the low 60s, so heat
indices will not exceed the mid-90s. We`ll be fortunate to have
those dewpoints for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 954 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

With all the rain south of area TAF sites, VFR conditions are
expected to remain through the forecast period. Mostly clear skies
tonight will be replaced with cumulus during the day tomorrow. Winds
will ease tonight before increasing out of the north-northwest
tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KDW
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...KDW