Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
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165 FXUS63 KLMK 170511 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 111 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Chances for rain (<40%) possible Tuesday and Wednesday for areas along and east of I-75; otherwise, mostly dry and warm through next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 926 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 No significant updates this evening. Skies are mainly clear, winds are light, and temperatures are in the upper 60s to mid 70s in most areas. Cirrus is now spreading west over the I-75 corridor, and high clouds will continue to increase from east to west overnight. We`ll stay mainly dry overnight and through much of Tuesday morning, with just a few showers possible near and east of I-75. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Clouds and moisture associated with potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will steadily advance into the region tonight and tomorrow. Most of the overnight hours are shaping up to be dry, but mid/high level clouds moving in could limit cooling slightly, particularly in our eastern zones. Scattered rain showers could start as early as dawn tomorrow morning near the I-75 corridor as a band/wave of moisture pushes into the region. Models vary on the coverage and westward extend of precipitation bands, but most generally have them weakening and/or `drying` up as they near the I-65 corridor. For now, have 30-40% chance PoPs across our I-75 counties, with chances quickly dropping off with westward extent. Overall QPF is fairly low with these showers (<0.25" for the day), so this won`t be a `drought buster` by any means. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be impacted by the clouds, as our far eastern counties will struggle to get to near 80 degrees. Think cloud cover will be thin enough west of I-65 that we`ll see highs well into the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 248 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The tropical depression off the Carolina coastline is forecast to continue inland progression toward the eastern Kentucky mountains Tuesday night, which will bring an increasing amount of clouds and slight chances for light rain along and east of the I-75 corridor. As the low moves closer to Kentucky, cyclonic wind flow will bring north to northwesterly winds across the region and bring "cooler" high temperatures Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80 on a line from Tompkinsville to Danville to Lexington and eastward, while other locations to the west of this line will see high temperatures in the mid 80s. For Thursday and beyond, an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the region to bring a warm up and dry conditions. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are about 6-10 degrees above normal for mid to late September. Dew point temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will have heat indices feeling cooler than temperature readings, likely "feeling" like in the mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 111 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Prevailing VFR conditions expected through the valid TAF period, with light winds out of the E-NE. Mid-level ceiling will spread from east to west through the morning and early afternoon hours. Could see some late-day showers in LEX, which we have handled with a PROB30 but that may even be generous. Impacts should be no worse than high-end MVFR, and heavily dependent on how much tropical moisture associated with the former PTC Eight can get across the mountains. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ UPDATE...EBW SHORT TERM...DM LONG TERM...MCK AVIATION...RAS