Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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841 FXUS66 KLOX 241027 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 327 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...23/523 PM. Low clouds and fog will affect coastal areas through the week with near normal temperatures. Dense fog is likely near the coast through at least Tuesday. Inland temperatures will remain above normal through the week, warmest through Tuesday. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected through the week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...24/307 AM. The calendar may say late September but the weather is saying late June. Night through morning low clouds will persist through the short term. Temps will remain below normal across the csts/vlys but will be above normal inland (away from the marine layer). Winds will be on the light side. An unexpected eddy spun up just before midnight and has lifted the marine layer a few hundred feet enough to bring plenty of low clouds to the vlys and also to eliminate most of the dense fog. The deeper marine air intrusion will also bring noticeable cooling to the vlys. Low clouds will hug the coast and many beaches will remain cloudy all day. Not much change in the cloud pattern for Wed and Thu skies will be clear save for the night through morning low clouds which will extend into the vlys. Hgts will fall through the two day period as a long wave trof develops in the east pac and moves closer to the coast. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of cooling Wed and 1 to 2 degrees on Thu. Max temps will take on an early July like distribution with the interior sections running 4 to 8 degrees above normal and the csts and vlys (swaddled in marine air) will end up 3 to 6 degrees below normal. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...24/327 AM. The benign weather will continue late this week and into the weekend. Hgts rise a few dam on Friday as a weak upper high pushes into the state from the east. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming across the board. A cooling trend will develop on Saturday and continue into Sunday as troffing spreads over the state and onshore flow increases. The night through morning low clouds will penetrate a little deeper into the vlys and will persist a little longer at the beaches. There will be stronger afternoon west winds across the mtns and the Antelope Vly. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of cooling on Saturday and 1 to 2 degrees on Sunday. The csts/vlys will end up 4 to 8 degrees below normal while the interior will remain 3 to 6 degrees above normal. Not the best confidence in the forecast for early next week but the most likely scenario is for high pressure to move closer to the state from the east and kicking off a slow warming trend. && .AVIATION...24/0558Z. At 0450Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 2200 ft with a temperature of 31 deg C. High confidence in desert and KPRB TAFs. Moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs LIFR conds are likely through 15Z-16Z. Intermittent 1/4SM vsbys are likely at most sites. VFR conds may arrive +/- an hour from fcst time. There is a 20 percent chc of a few more hours of VFR conds in the afternoon than forecast and a 30 percent chc that there will be no clearing (except for KCMA and KLGB where there is good confidence in VFR conds in the afternoon). KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. TAF VIS will reflect sfc vis not tall tower vis. Intermittent vis of 1/4SM is likely (60 percent) through 15Z. There is a 30 percent chc of no clearing and a 20 percent chc of SCT conds lasting to 23Z. High confidence in no significant easterly wind component. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of 1/4SM FG conds through 15Z. Good confidence that SCT-SKC conds will arrive by 1630Z. && .MARINE...23/813 PM. High confidence in the current forecast through early Thursday, then moderate confidence thereafter. Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through early Thursday, except for a low-to-moderate (20-30 percent) chance of local SCA level W-NW wind gusts in the vicinity Point Conception, near Point Dume and into the San Pedro Channel each afternoon and evening through Wednesday. There is a moderate (40-50 percent) chance of SCA level winds Thursday afternoon through Friday for the waters beyond 10 NM offshore along the Central Coast southeast to San Nicolas Island. Additionally, there is a 30 percent chance of SCA level seas across the outer waters building over the weekend, especially over the northern outer waters where models indicate seas building to around 10 feet Saturday night into Sunday. A shallow marine layer over the coastal waters is expected to bring areas of dense fog to the coastal waters tonight into Tuesday morning, with at least patchy dense fog possible again Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. A marine weather statement is currently in effect through noon Tuesday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for zones 340-341-346-347. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Rorke AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Hall/Lund/Smith SYNOPSIS...Kittell/Smith weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox