000
FXUS66 KLOX 241253
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
553 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...23/523 PM.

Low clouds and fog will affect coastal areas through the week
with near normal temperatures. Dense fog is likely near the coast
through at least Tuesday. Inland temperatures will remain above
normal through the week, warmest through Tuesday. Otherwise,
quiet weather is expected through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...24/307 AM.

The calendar may say late September but the weather is saying late
June. Night through morning low clouds will persist through the
short term. Temps will remain below normal across the csts/vlys
but will be above normal inland (away from the marine layer).
Winds will be on the light side.

An unexpected eddy spun up just before midnight and has lifted the
marine layer a few hundred feet enough to bring plenty of low
clouds to the vlys and also to eliminate most of the dense fog.
The deeper marine air intrusion will also bring noticeable
cooling to the vlys. Low clouds will hug the coast and many
beaches will remain cloudy all day.

Not much change in the cloud pattern for Wed and Thu skies will
be clear save for the night through morning low clouds which will
extend into the vlys. Hgts will fall through the two day period
as a long wave trof develops in the east pac and moves closer to
the coast. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of cooling Wed and 1 to 2
degrees on Thu. Max temps will take on an early July like
distribution with the interior sections running 4 to 8 degrees
above normal and the csts and vlys (swaddled in marine air) will
end up 3 to 6 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...24/327 AM.

The benign weather will continue late this week and into the
weekend. Hgts rise a few dam on Friday as a weak upper high pushes
into the state from the east. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming
across the board.

A cooling trend will develop on Saturday and continue into Sunday
as troffing spreads over the state and onshore flow increases. The
night through morning low clouds will penetrate a little deeper
into the vlys and will persist a little longer at the beaches.
There will be stronger afternoon west winds across the mtns and
the Antelope Vly. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of cooling on Saturday
and 1 to 2 degrees on Sunday. The csts/vlys will end up 4 to 8
degrees below normal while the interior will remain 3 to 6 degrees
above normal.

Not the best confidence in the forecast for early next week but
the most likely scenario is for high pressure to move closer to
the state from the east and kicking off a slow warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1252Z.

At 12Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1700 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was near 2700 ft with a temperature of 28 deg C.

High confidence in desert and KPRB TAFs.

Low to moderate confidence in remainder of TAFs. Low clouds were
widespread in coastal areas and have pushed into the San Gabriel
Valley, portions of the San Fernando Valley, and portions of the
Ventura County valleys. Conds were mostly LIFR to VLIFR. Expect
skies to clear by mid morning in the valleys, and late morning
across interior sections of the coastal plain. Cigs will likely
continue into the afternoon near the coast, and possibly all day.
Expect widespread low clouds in coastal and lower valley areas
tonight, with IFR to LIFR conds expected, and local VLIFR conds.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance that cigs will
scatter out between 20Z and 03Z. High confidence in no
significant easterly wind component.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance that
cigs will linger until 18Z. There is a 20-30% chance that cigs
will not arrive tonight until after 08Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/516 AM.

High confidence in the forecast thru Thu morning, then moderate
confidence. Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels thru Thu morning, However, there is a 20% chance of
local SCA level W-NW wind gusts near Pt. Conception, from Anacapa
Island to near Pt. Dume and in portions of the San Pedro Channel
during the late afternoon/eve hours today and Wed. SCA level winds
are likely (60% chance) late Thu afternoon or evening thru Fri
afternoon or evening for the waters beyond 10 NM off the Central
Coast southeast to San Nicolas Island. There is a 30% chance of
SCA level seas across the outer waters Sat/Sat night.

A shallow marine layer will bring areas of dense fog to the waters
this morning. At least patchy dense fog is expected again tonight/Wed
morning. A marine weather statement is in effect thru noon today.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT this morning for
      zones 340-341-346-347. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...Kittell/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox