Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
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784 FXUS63 KLSX 151927 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 227 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through next week. Sunday and Monday will be the warmest days with peak heat index values in the upper 90s to 105 degrees. - There is a low chance (20 percent) of showers and thunderstorms this evening over central Missouri. There are low chances (20-40 percent) for afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly Monday through Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Sunday Night) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Regional radar is showing a small area of showers and thunderstorms over north central Missouri that is slowly moving to the northeast this afternoon. This activity will likely diminish as it will be moving into an area of rapidly decreasing MUCAPE per the SPC mesoanalysis. Some of the CAMS are showing isolated convection over central Missouri into the early evening, so held on to a slight chance of thunderstorms through this evening. Attention then turns to what will be the warmest day of the year so far with highs climbing into the middle to upper 90s with heat indices ranging from the upper 90s to 105. It will be warm start to the day with lows tonight ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Surface winds will turn out of the south-southwest tomorrow morning with 850mb temperatures around 20C which favors a warmer day. The NBM deterministic highs tomorrow are slightly warmer than the MOS guidance, which supports our going forecast. Otherwise expect a mainly sunny day with little chance of rain. Britt && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Next Saturday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 There is still good agreement between the global models and the LREF that the large upper high over the East Coast will gradually expand westward into the central CONUS by late next week. Model guidance is also showing moisture returning off the Gulf of Mexico on the back side of the upper high that won`t get cut off until the high builds back into the area later in the week. Ensemble members are still supporting a chance (20-40%) of mainly daytime showers and thunderstorms Monday into Wednesday with lower chances late in week. Monday looks like another warm day with highs in the middle 90s with some locations having heat indices exceeding 100 degrees, mainly around the St. Louis metro area. Then there will be an increase in clouds and rain chances that will cause highs to be slightly lower during the middle of the week before highs are forecast to go back up into the middle 90s Friday and Saturday as the upper high moves back over the area. Confidence in the temperature forecast is highest on Monday when the NBM IQR is only 5 degrees, but lowers Tuesday into Thursday as the IQR widens to 6-8 degrees. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning) Issued at 556 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Predominantly dry and VFR flight conditions are expected through Sunday morning with the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms remaining west of all terminals this morning and afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at KCOU and KJEF, but the probability of occurrence is too low to mention. Pfahler && .CLIMATE... Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Daily High Temperature Records: |=== June 16 ==|=== June 17 ==| St. Louis (KSTL) | 100 F (1952) | 99 F (1944) | Columbia (KCOU) | 99 F (2006) | 100 F (1936) | Quincy (KUIN) | 102 F (1936) | 103 F (1918) | && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX