625
FXUS64 KLUB 092338
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
638 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The cold front that moved through early this morning is now just to
the south of the forecast area with the surface low over the Permian
Basin. Moist easterly upslope surface flow continues to give way to
dewpoints in the 60s. Cumulus clouds are developing this afternoon
across the area as an outflow boundary moves into the far southern
Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. There is a small chance
for a few showers and storms to develop along this outflow boundary
pushing south into the South and Rolling Plains this afternoon.
Additional storm development is expected to occur near the triple
point in southeast New Mexico and with the upslope moist surface
flow, storms are expected to continue to move eastward through
tonight. The weak upper ridge is already beginning to break down
with a shortwave trough to enter into eastern New Mexico, which will
help to initiate and maintain storms. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected this evening and into the overnight hours
across the forecast area. A few storms may become strong to severe
with damaging wind gusts and hail possible. However, the main threat
this evening will be localized flooding with PWATs near 1.5" to 2",
which is well above the climatological maximum. Storm motion will be
slow due to weak flow aloft and coupled with heavy rainfall and high
rainfall rates, a few areas with continuous storms may experience
flooding concerns.

By early Monday morning, the rainfall will have tapered from west to
east with a layer of dry air building in around 800-600mb. A stable
airmass with remain in place tomorrow morning with low stratus
persisting through much of the day. Temperatures tomorrow will
remain cooler than normal and nearly 15-20 degrees cooler than today
with the continued low clouds. By the afternoon hours tomorrow,
additional thunderstorms are possible along the Texas/New Mexico
border if skies can clear and temperatures warm. The upper shortwave
will develop into a closed low over West Texas by this time and
provide additional dynamical lift for storm initiation. These storms
that develop will be capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Storms will continue to move eastward through the evening hours
tomorrow. Details can be found in the long term discussion below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Tomorrow evening, we will continue to watch the upper level low
centered off the coast of Baja California del Norte and a weak
disturbance transiting NE NM.  High pressure will remain present in
between these features with a ridge extending from Durango MX
into the Great Basin and thence across the western provinces of
Canada. As the NM disturbance creeps into Oklahoma, mid level
winds will become increasingly northerly across WTX as high
pressure builds into the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts keeping
the California low at bay. However, by early Friday, assisted by
the phasing with a trough swinging around a low in the Gulf of
Alaska, the California low will begin to eject into the central
plains likely making it to 100W by Saturday evening. This will
enhance southwesterly flow for us into Friday and Saturday The
GFS/ECM agreement with this system is quite remarkable though the
CMC deviates sharply on Saturday. In general, the track of next
weekend`s system is more northerly than depicted yesterday.

Convective initiation should have occurred by 00Z/Tue near the TX/NM
state line which is expected to track ESE across the CWA.
Unsurprisingly, as the surface front (today) made it further
south than models advertised (a common issue over the past few
years), guidance is, at least, advertising tomorrow night`s
activity to be centered perhaps 60 mi south of that seen
yesterday. Depending on the results of tonight`s convection, this
could very well change again as it would be expected that
convection would tend to favor propagation along existing theta-e
gradients (outflow boundaries or other favored regions). CAPE
values on Tuesday evening look fairly anemic (1000-1500J/kg) with
today`s data but could support a few severe reports (wind/hail)
early in the evening. During the day on Tuesday, deterministic
guidance continues to show a risk of storms out east during the
afternoon hours. Forecast soundings depict only ectomorphic CAPE
during the afternoon which, at this point, appear to result in
sub-severe thunderstorm activity which would be expected to
diminish after the loss of daytime heating. Wednesday and Thursday
continue to look dry with warmer temperatures as the
aforementioned high settles more squarely over the area. What has
changed in the latter extended is the absence of the storms
previously advertised for Friday and Saturday evening. As
mentioned above, this is the result of the ejecting trough
tracking further north thus limiting its ability to destabilize
the atmosphere sufficiently across the CWA. Still, that could
change.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue off and on over all
terminals through Monday morning. Periods of reduced visibility
and gusty winds are expected within the storms.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19