490
FXUS64 KLUB 250804
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
304 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A cold front has cleared the area early this morning which will lead
to cooler temperatures this afternoon. Temperatures will be knocked
back down close to seasonal averages due to this front. A surface
ridge moving down the Missouri River valley will lead to light winds
through early Thursday morning. At the same time, an upper level
ridge will slowly migrate eastward across the Rockies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

An upper level trough currently centered over the central Midwest is
progged to deepen and dive into the Mississippi River Valley through
the long term period. Meanwhile, upper level ridging off to our west
will continue to amplify, extending from the Desert Southwest into
the Central Plains. This will set-up a blocking pattern across the
CONUS which will lead to dry and fair weather conditions in the 80s
to lower 90s through the end of the week and into early next week.
Uncertainty remains on the development of Tropical Cyclone Helene as
it moves onshore the AL/FL shore Thursday. There is a chance this
would push the upper level trough back to the west where we could
see a few disturbances in the flow aloft track down the backside of
the low generating thunderstorm potential. However, ensemble and
deterministic guidance is not keen on this possibility therefore
have opted to run with NBM silent PoPs through the long-term
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR will continue through the TAF period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01