Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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501 FXUS64 KLUB 201938 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 238 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 An upper-level ridge is currently centered over the ArkLaTex and is expected to build westward towards our forecast area through the short term period. Meanwhile, southeasterly surface winds have maintained a moist environment this afternoon, influenced by the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto in northern Mexico. With cloud cover and scattered showers moving northward through the CWA this afternoon, high temperatures today are expected to be relatively cool. Tonight`s lows should be mild, with low to mid 60s dewpoints and continued cloud cover preventing much cooling overnight. Showers will decrease in coverage tonight from the Rolling Plains first, then westward. However, the western South Plains and far southwest TXPH may see intermittent showers through Friday afternoon. Expect seasonable temperatures tomorrow, with most areas 5-10 degrees warmer than today`s highs. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 As we head into the weekend with a ridge moving to the west, cloud cover will decrease as temperatures will begin to rise. Despite the rising temperatures, the region will retain moisture quite well, leading to heat indexes into the 90`s on Saturday and Sunday and possibly into the low 100`s during the middle of next week, with both Wednesday and Thursday representing the hottest days of the forecast. Cloud cover and PoPs are also expected to increase for Wednesday and Thursday, which both have the potential for low-end severe weather scattered across the CWA. Although the severe weather has the potential to reduce high temperatures, they remain far into the forecast period, so confidence is low. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The passage of a tropical system to the south will maintain a very moist airmass across the area through Friday. Ceilings are the main concern for the terminals. MVFR CIGS at KPVW and LBB may show some improvement this afternoon and evening with periods of VFR, but then are expected to return to MVFR tonight, with IFR CIGS also possible. VFR is expected to prevail at KCDS, but lower CIGS are possible there as well. SHRA will be scattered across the area through tonight. Surface winds will remain out of the SE through the period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58/DF LONG TERM....58/KW AVIATION...33