863
FXUS64 KLUB 182004
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
304 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Attention early this afternoon remains off the Caprock where a
narrow line of showers and thunderstorms was found drifting east
from the Highway 83 corridor. Despite some lingering cap in this
region, rich moisture advection particularly around 850 mb has
managed to force parcels through the lingering inhibition. Recent
radar trends as of 230 PM suggest this ascent is waning, but have
kept a sliver of low thunder mention across the eastern Rolling
Plains through the afternoon. Farther west, the pattern is more
interesting as a dryline organizes over eastern NM. Although
moisture convergence remains rather subtle along the dryline, the
presence of a mesolow near Dora and strong heating/deeper mixing
just upstream should bolster ascent along the dryline near or
shortly after peak heating. Combined with the H7 thermal ridge
shifting off the Caprock in the coming hours, high-based storms
should ensue near the TX-NM border near or after 5 PM and shift
slowly east within 20 knots of steering flow. Enough veering of
winds with height and around 30 knots of 0-6km shear could support
some high-based supercells with large hail and modest forcing
overall should keep storm coverage isolate to scattered through
this evening as storms shift toward the I27 corridor. While the
LLJ tonight may be able to sustain this activity after midnight,
most guidance including the HREF favors convection diminishing
around midnight as it enters our far northeastern zones.

Wednesday features rising heights as the western edge of an
elongated ridge expands over the region. At the surface, a cold
front currently in sern CO and swrn KS should be creeping south
through the TX Panhandle in the morning before ultimately stalling
near our southwest Panhandle counties during the day. Despite the
front, models are keen to keep most of the precip chances mainly
north of the boundary given a more hostile convective environment in
our area under the 700-500 mb ridge axis. Furthermore, increased low
clouds for much of the day should put a damper on high temps further
keeping us on the stable side. Opted to shave NBM`s PoPs lower in
our far NW counties for the afternoon where mainly 20 PoPs are
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Long term forecast remains on track this afternoon with the main
feature of interest being the moisture associated with a tropical
system in the Gulf. Confidence on the exact track of this system
remains uncertain as upper-level high pressure expands from the
Mid Atlantic back into Texas. Latest guidance steers potential
Tropical Cyclone One south of Texas making landfall in Mexico.
This would still allow a slug of moisture to rotate across the
forecast area beginning Thursday morning and eventually
dissipating by Friday night. Despite the ridging in place aloft,
while this moisture plume remains over the forecast area showers
and thunderstorms will be possible area wide although the best
coverage of rainfall should remain south of our forecast area.
This increase in moisture will also help to keep temperatures a
bit cooler than the past few days on Thursday as high temperatures
only warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The plume of moisture
will continue to slide westward on Friday bringing an end to
precipitation chances from east to west on Friday. This will keep
temperatures cooler on the Caprock once again only warming into
the lower 80s while locations east of the escarpment warm into the
lower 90s. Ridging will slide back to the west towards the
forecast area on Saturday and become situated directly over the
forecast area Sunday. This will keep temperatures on the upward
climb into early next week as afternoon high temperatures once
again peak in the mid to upper 90s. Center of the ridge will
continue to slide west early next week which will transition our
upper-air pattern to northwest flow aloft which may bring a few
more chances of showers and thunderstorms to the area especially
the far southern Texas Panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

MVFR ceilings have since improved to VFR and will soon scatter out
from W-E. Chances are looking better for at least ISO TS after
22Z, initially W of PVW and then spreading east through the
evening. Low confidence in these impacting PVW, so will keep TS
mention absent for now. Better confidence in MVFR stratus
returning by Wednesday morning at all sites and lingering for much
of the morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...93