029
FXUS64 KLUB 291132
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
632 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

The upper-level ridge will be centered over North Texas today which
means the heat continues across our forecast area. However,
southeast surface winds will actually keep high temperatures a few
degrees cooler than yesterday (upper 90s to lower 100s) but it will
also transport surface moisture back into the forecast area hence
it`ll be slightly muggier today as well. This will lead to heat
index values of 105-107 across the eastern Rolling Plains and far
southeast Texas Panhandle where a Heat Advisory remains in effect
from 1 pm until 8 pm. Precipitation chances will be slightly
higher today than yesterday across the far southwest Texas
Panhandle and northwestern South Plains where better monsoonal
moisture will be located. Initially a capping inversion around
15,000 feet will keep the area dry however as a weak disturbance
lifts north on the west side of the ridge this capping should
erode. While forcing will be weak across our area, temperatures
near convective temperatures should be sufficient for a few
showers/thunderstorms to develop across this region. With cloud
bases near 10,000 ft the threat for a few stronger wind gusts will
be possible. Unfortunately, with southerly steering flow in place
across the region this activity will drift to the north leading
to a dry and warm night for most of the area with low temperatures
only dropping back into the 70s. /WI

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Outflow from the overnight storms to our north in the Texas
Panhandle will drift south and enter our forecast area Sunday
morning. There may be enough moisture in the atmosphere to get a few
showers to develop Sunday morning. The outflow boundaries will also
have to be watched as we head into the afternoon as they will serve
as a focus for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as well.
Latest soundings indicate surface based CAPE around 1000 J/kg but
with very little shear hence slow moving storms with the potential
for gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall will be the primary
concern. These outflows along with southeasterly surface winds
will keep high temperatures on Sunday mostly in the 90s.

The center of the ridge will remain parked over North Texas through
Monday evening before eventually sliding east and becoming elongated
over the southeastern U.S.. Despite decreasing heights aloft
overall thickness values will remain steady and slightly increase
as we head into Tuesday. This will allow temperatures to warm a
degree or two both Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures near
and above the century mark area wide by Tuesday once again. Lee
surface troughing should also develop on Monday and remain there
through the middle of the week which will bring a return of
southwesterly winds and slightly lower dewpoints. Fortunately,
when the ridge slides east this will also allow monsoonal
moisture to move back over at least portions of the forecast area
Tuesday through the end of next week. Hence each afternoon and
evening the South Plains and far southern Texas Panhandle will
have a chance at precipitation. By the end of the week and into
next weekend another ridge will slide over the southwestern U.S.
which will place us within northwest flow aloft. This will help to
lower temperatures back closer to average for this time of year
as well as increase precipitation chances across the entire
forecast area. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Southerly
winds this morning will back to the southeast later this morning
and become breezy through the afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon but remain north and
west of LBB and PVW. Hot temperatures can be expected once again
this afternoon so check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for TXZ026-032-038-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...58