183
FXUS64 KLUB 221115
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
615 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level high
continuing its westward progression into the South Plains region
early this morning. By this afternoon, the upper level ridge is
expected to suppress over the FA, allowing for relatively zonal
flow aloft to prevail. As expected, dry and quiet conditions are
expected to unfold across most of the FA this afternoon with the
upper level ridge overhead. However, low-level moisture trapped
underneath the ridge will remain locked in place with afternoon
dew point temperatures well above normal for this time of year in
the 60s. In addition, a small plume of monsoonal moisture is
expected to remain across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle
this afternoon. If enough destabilization occurs today from
diurnal heating, we may see a similar pattern as previous with
isolated showers/thunderstorms developing across the far
southwestern Texas Panhandle. Chances for thunderstorms remain
slim, with the best chances remaining well to our north and west
where the better moisture and instability resides. Regardless, a
warm day is on tap for the FA with temperatures a few degrees
warmer than previous. Lee cyclogenesis will work to shift winds
out of the southwest this morning, which in combination with
increased thickness values will work to boost temperatures into
the low to mid 90s this afternoon under clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

No significant changes were made to the forecast this morning as the
models are in good agreement with the evolution of the pattern over
the CONUS during the upcoming. Specifically, an upper level high
that has been centered over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic for
much of the last week will retrograde across the southern half of
the CONUS, finally coming to rest over the desert southwest by
midweek. This will result in hot temperatures returning to the
forecast area with highs frequently in the upper 90s to just over
the 100 degree mark. Low level moisture is progged to remain in
place across the area as well, especially the eastern zones off the
Caprock where the highest temperatures are also expected. As such,
heat index values there may reach Heat Advisory criteria (i.e., 105-
109 degrees) with the best chance of that currently looking to be
Tuesday and Wednesday. Perhaps the most significant trend in the 00Z
model suite is for less of a chance for northwest flow thunderstorms
in the Tuesday to Thursday period with a shift toward a stronger,
more expansive ridge to our west and a digging short wave trough
farther to the east than previously expected, now favoring southern
Atlantic coast for that feature rather than the lower Mississippi
Valley. NBM will be slow to mix that completely out of the forecast,
but a slight decrease in precip chances was noted, and for the
moment has been retained.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Winds will continue to shift out of the southwest this morning.
becoming breezy before diminishing late this afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12