Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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273 FXUS64 KLUB 250610 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 110 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 An upper level ridge centered over Chihuahua is expected to persist through the short term period, gradually edging northward into Tuesday. The influence of this ridge should continue the upward trend in temperatures, with Tuesday`s highs exceeding 100 degrees F off the Caprock and across the southern South Plains. Forecast confidence in heat index values above 105 is high enough in the far southeastern TXPH and northern Rolling Plains to warrant a Heat Advisory on Tuesday afternoon. By early evening on Tuesday, inverted-v soundings with 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE indicate a marginal environment for thunderstorms across the South Plains and far southern TXPH. Westerly flow aloft should turn NNW by Tuesday evening as the center of the upper-level ridge moves over Las Cruces. Thus, if storms initiate across the TXPH or eastern NM, they could move into the CWA tomorrow evening with the potential for a few strong wind gusts. /DF && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Barring a few windows for thunderstorms, the extended pattern remains a mostly hot and dry one for our area thanks to a large dome of high pressure either directly over us or close by. Starting Tuesday evening, this high will be found over western NM and is forecast to have amplified from 592 to 595 dam. Downstream of this ridge, westerly winds aloft will veer N-NW and could serve to give a better southward push to late day storms firing along a surface trough in the northern TX Panhandle. Another area of interest for high-based storms tomorrow evening will be along the Mescalero Ridge of far eastern NM where weak upslope flow is expected. Modest northerly flow aloft and some outflow propagation supports low PoPs for our W-NW counties with a similar scenario on Wednesday evening. The one bit of good news with the upper high is that it will be weakening by Thursday as it elongates and shifts over the South Plains. So despite the increased subsidence, high temps won`t be getting any hotter than preceding days as thicknesses remain largely unchanged. The high center departs to well to our east for Friday and opens the door to some low PoPs on the periphery of this ridge across our NW zones near a surface trough. These PoPs look to improve a bit and expand in coverage by late Saturday as a decaying cold front drifts across the TX Panhandle, although recent global models and ensembles are unfortunately trending farther north with this front which implies dry conditions locally. Opted to shave NBM`s generous PoPs back a bit for Saturday evening given this trend. Otherwise, Sunday and beyond show the subtropical high holding near the Ozarks all the while a plume of monsoonal moisture becomes established to our west. High temps will remain above normal through the weekend with additional Heat Advisories possible on Wednesday for our far E-NE counties. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ024>026-032. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...07