965
FXUS64 KLUB 231104
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
604 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Pesky stratus was holding tight over all but the far southwest TX
Panhandle as of 1 AM. This layer is quite thin and confined to the
frontal inversion which is on track to dry out considerably toward
sunrise ahead of surface high pressure arriving from western KS.
One tricky element today is high temps in those areas that saw
soaking rain this weekend. Even with full insolation this afternoon,
the NBM looks too mild over most of the South Plains where rainfall
was not much to brag about, so highs elsewhere were trimmed a few
degrees.

Surface ridging peels east tonight underneath cyclonic W-NW flow.
This will promote a shallow layer of moist southerly winds with some
low probs for fog development across our southern row of counties
toward daybreak per the SREF and HREF. Overall this fog threat looks
too marginal for mention in the grids at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

An upper level trough is expected to dive southward through the
northern and central Plains beginning Tuesday while upper level
ridging amplifies to our west. This will lead to relatively
northerly flow aloft through most of the week as the upper level
trough becomes nearly stationary over the ArkLaTex region.

We begin to warm up Tuesday as wash out from the weekend front
that brought us the nice taste of Fall Sunday and Monday. Lee
surface troughing in southeastern CO is expected to develop by
early Tuesday morning which will influence southwest surface
winds. These southwest winds will aid in the warm up of
temperatures back into the 80s across the FA. As the upper level
trough and associated front begin to surge southward a few
thunderstorms may begin to develop along the boundary and track
southward into portions of the far southeastern TX Panhandle and
Rolling Plains Tuesday afternoon. However, latest model runs
continue to push the upper level trough and associated lift and
moisture further east into central OK. MOS guidance has also
picked up on this drier solution and therefore have decided to
dial back PoP chances for most of Tuesday. Mentionable PoPs
remain in tact for the eastern Rolling Plains and far southeastern
TXPH where the best moisture and lift will likely reside. The
front is expected to make its way through the FA by Tuesday
evening, with post frontal northerly winds prevailing. This will
lead to cooler temperatures Wednesday in the 70s to low-end 80s.
The pattern becomes a bit uncertain come Thursday as a tropical
system moves onshore the AL/FL coastline and interacts with the
rather stationary upper level low. Depending on how this evolves,
we could see the upper level low shift back to the west as the
tropical system moves northward and eventually absorbed into the
flow aloft. If this scenario where to pan out, the eastern
portions of the FA could see some remnant moisture wrap around the
backside of the low which could increased precipitation chances
through the weekend. However, it is way too soon to know how this
upper level pattern will evolve. Confidence does remain in tact
for this system to keep northerly flow aloft and cooler
temperatures in the 70s and low 80s in place through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

MVFR ceilings are scattering out at LBB and will follow suit at
CDS in the next few hours ahead of SKC and light winds.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93