Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
751 FXUS64 KLUB 161059 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 559 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A cluster of thunderstorms has made its way into the southern South Plains and will continue to track southeastward over the next few hours. These are not expected to become severe but could produce brief gusty winds and heavy downpours. Quiet conditions are expected thereafter across the area with lows bottoming out near 70. Today will be similar to that of the previous days with mostly sunny skies and highs reaching the mid 90s in the afternoon with breezy southerly winds, potentially gusting up to 30 mph. While moisture will remain abundant with dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60s and PWATs even slightly higher than yesterday, there is no distinct upper trough or LLJ to provide much in the way of forcing. While an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot completely be ruled out, there are no mentionable PoPs in the current forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A potentially active period of weather is anticipated for the upcoming week but details remain nebulous. A strong upper ridge will continue to build over the eastern CONUS with mean troughing in the western CONUS with West Texas in the middle of these two features. The troughing in the western US will generally keep low level moisture feeding into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. Surface cyclogenesis will develop in lee of the Rockies both on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. This will keep the dryline from mixing too far eastward on Monday. Increasing strength of the surface cyclone will increase low level convergence along the dryline close to the Texas/New Mexico state line. Very deep boundary layer mixing will occur near the dryline to somewhere between 2 and 2.5km mixing depth under hot temperatures in the mid 90s. A strong elevated mixed layer will further allow forecast mixed layer instabilities to possibly exceed 2000 J/kg due to very steep mid level lapse rates on the order of 8-9C/km. However, this warm air aloft will be difficult to overcome but models now show very weak to little capping around 00Z or so potentially allowing for some isolated convection in the western South Plains capable of producing strong wind gusts and to a lesser extent, large hail. The surface low will be farther to the south in southeastern Colorado on Tuesday afternoon owing to a front moving through the Northern and Central Plains. Otherwise, the set up will mostly be the same as Monday except for stronger capping most likely preventing isolated convection. Better chances for convection will exist farther north in the Texas Panhandle where the slow moving frontal boundary will intersect the dryline. The forecast becomes increasingly vague from Wednesday and beyond as the front looks to stall well north of the area. But this will continue to allow low level moisture to surge into the region through the end of the week. A remnant tropical system or tropical wave will be moving westward out of the western Gulf of Mexico across South Texas during the second half of the week. Increased cloud cover late in the week from the tropical wave will keep temperatures closer to seasonal averages. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 558 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Southerly winds will increase this later this morning and remain gusty through the end of the TAF period. KLBB could potentially gust to near 30 kts this afternoon. VFR will continue. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ042. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...19