Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
546 FXUS61 KLWX 100125 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 925 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue pushing southeast of the area tonight as upper level troughing pivots over the region. High pressure builds in over the area in the wake of the cold front, leading to mostly dry conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Drier air (dew points in the mid to upper 40s) has been filtering into the area in the wake of a cold front. A spoke of vorticity within the upper trough is resulting in a broken line of showers across southwestern Pennsylvania. These showers may affect western Maryland and eastern West Virginia over the next few hours, but should tend to dissipate as they drift south and east. Mid and high level clouds persist, especially across southern areas in the right entrance of a jet streak. These clouds should depart during the second half of the night. Low temperatures will be in the 50s to around 60. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... An upper level trough will continue pivoting overhead Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds in at the surface. Conditions will primarily be dry each day, however, there is a slight chance of precipitation Monday afternoon as the upper level trough deepens over the area. Precipitation chances are highest for those in the southernmost portions of the forecast area and along the Alleghenies. On Tuesday, a frontal system and surface low pressure draped over the Carolinas will lead to a slight chance of precipitation in the southernmost portions of the area. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected on Tuesday with light winds out of the northwest. High temperatures will be in the 60s to 70s with only those in the metro areas possibly reaching 80. Overnight temperatures each night will be in the upper 40s to 50s each night with metro areas staying in the low 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will allow for mostly dry conditions on Wednesday. A weak boundary may pass by far western MD and along the Allegheny Front, where an isolated shower/sprinkle may fall. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s for the lower elevations with low 70s across the mountainous terrain. Dry conditions continue Thursday into Friday with high pressure slowly moving further offshore and warm, moist southwest flow building in. A warmer airmass will introduce low to mid 90s into the area by Thursday and Friday afternoons ahead of a weak cold front moving in from the west. Cannot rule out a few showers or even isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening, especially across western and north-central MD. The cold front passes by early Saturday morning and brings in a reprieve of 90s, with mid to upper 80s expected for the weekend with mostly dry conditions expected. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions today through Tuesday night. Winds are diminishing this evening and are expected to remain out of the west or northwest through Monday. A few gusts of 15-20 kt are possible during the afternoon. Cumulus will likely thicken beneath the upper trough, and there could even be a few showers late Monday afternoon and evening, but probabilities are too low to include in the TAF. Winds diminish further on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure lingers near the area. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory has expired for this evening, although some guidance indicates the potential for a few intermittent gusts up to 20 knots on the bay overnight. West-northwest winds continue Monday but will be lighter than Sunday. However, the northern part of the bay and upper Potomac may be close to advisory criteria. A surge of north-northwest winds may channel down the bay Monday night and be near advisory criteria. Lighter northwest winds are expected Tuesday. Sub-SCA winds are expected Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure influences the waters, leading to light southerly flow by Thursday afternoon and evening. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AVS NEAR TERM...ADS SHORT TERM...AVS LONG TERM...ADM AVIATION...ADS/AVS/ADM MARINE...ADS/AVS/ADM