Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
262 FXUS61 KLWX 070058 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 858 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions are forecast for Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds over the region. A slow moving upper trough approaches the area from the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday leading to more unsettled conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... A cold front was crossing I-95 as of 9 PM EDT. The mid/upper trough axis will cross later this evening, and with some residual instability a few showers or a thunderstorm could still pop up until around midnight, but will likely be sub-severe as diurnal stabilization sets in. Some passing mid level clouds are anticipated overnight with low temperatures generally in the 60s (except mid to upper 50s west of the Blue Ridge). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions expected Friday and Saturday as large surface high pressure moves across the region. A large upper trough remains enough to our north through Saturday afternoon, but starts to dip south closer to our area Saturday night. This could bring a few showers to the Alleghenies for the second half of the weekend. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s each day, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Our area will remain in a nearly zonal flow aloft between upper- level low pressure over New England/southern Canada and the subtropical ridge over the southern CONUS. A westerly downsloping flow behind a cold front will allow for dry and breezy conditions along with low humidity for Saturday. An upper-level disturbance and re-enforcing cold front will move through Sunday, bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will most likely be isolated to scattered and instability will be limited, but given a stronger wind flow aloft there could be some stronger storms with gusty winds. The upper-level trough will dig south for the early portion of next week, bringing cool and unsettled conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A pop up shower or thunderstorm is possible through late evening, but confidence is too low to include TS in the TAFs. Dry conditions are expected overnight behind the cold front as southerly winds shift to the west. After that, VFR conditions are expected through Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west. VFR conditions are expected most of the time Saturday through Sunday. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... High pressure builds into the region from the west Friday into Saturday. West winds are likely to remain below SCA criteria. Westerly winds on Sunday turn northwest behind a cold front. Winds over the waters are expected to stay below SCA criteria. Showers and thunderstorms on Sunday could bring stronger gusts to the waters in the afternoon. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... With a steady southerly flow in place across the region, tidal anomalies have been on the increase. A cold front crosses the area this evening, with the resulting west winds causing tidal anomalies to drop by tonight, though the more sensitive tidal locations will make a run at minor tidal flooding for the morning tidal cycle. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DHOF/CPB/KRR NEAR TERM...DHOF/CPB/KRR SHORT TERM...CPB/KRR LONG TERM...BJL AVIATION...BJL/DHOF/CPB MARINE...BJL/DHOF/CPB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX