Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
636 FXUS64 KLZK 170813 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 313 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 To begin the period, high pressure is currently centered just to the east of the state...this will continue to provide southerly flow into the area. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible across a good portion of the state through the afternoon and evening hours today. The best chance for these storms will be over central and southern locations. CAMs are showing a typical summer-like pop- up storms where some areas could see half an inch or higher in accumulation where areas down the road may not see anything at all. The chance for severe weather is low at this time, however, a few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. The main hazard with these storms would be hail and damaging wind gusts. A slight "cooldown" is expected Monday and Tuesday compared to where temperatures have been the last few days. Highs are expected to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Humidity will make heat index values feel slightly higher. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The period will begin with a large ridge of high pressure gradually building over Arkansas. Temperatures will start off close to seasonal on Wednesday, but above to well above average readings are in the forecast thereafter. Afternoon heat indices do not look horrible and are generally below triple digits given dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Relative humidities will bottom out between 30 and 40 percent, and vegetation will dry out more quickly. Toward the end of the week, a strong storm system will track from the central Plains to the upper Midwest. The system will try to drag a cold front toward Arkansas, but the front will have difficulty penetrating through the ridge. Even so, moisture will increase a bit ahead of the front, and this may result in isolated afternoon/early evening thunderstorms next weekend. Heat index values may approach 100 degrees in places on Saturday, and range from 100 to 105 degrees Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period under high pressure. Diurnal SHRA/TSRA will be possible through the afternoon/evening hours Monday for mainly central and southern terminals. VCTS has been written in for those sites. Southerly winds are expected through the period. Winds could be gusty associated with any thunderstorm activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 88 72 88 70 / 50 20 20 0 Camden AR 91 71 88 71 / 50 10 20 10 Harrison AR 89 71 87 68 / 20 10 20 0 Hot Springs AR 90 71 89 69 / 40 20 20 0 Little Rock AR 91 74 90 73 / 40 20 20 0 Monticello AR 90 72 89 72 / 60 10 20 0 Mount Ida AR 89 71 88 69 / 30 10 20 0 Mountain Home AR 89 71 87 69 / 30 10 20 0 Newport AR 88 73 90 72 / 60 20 20 0 Pine Bluff AR 89 72 90 72 / 50 10 20 0 Russellville AR 90 73 90 71 / 40 10 20 0 Searcy AR 89 71 89 71 / 60 20 20 0 Stuttgart AR 88 74 89 74 / 50 10 20 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...73 LONG TERM....46 AVIATION...73