177
FXUS64 KLZK 221504 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1004 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024


.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

An upper level ridge will be over Arkansas today and centered over
Texas on Sunday. Expect subsidence to continue over the area and
result in a lack of rain chances today. A cold front will be able to
move into north Arkansas Sunday afternoon. This will bring a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms near the Missouri border Sunday
afternoon.

Highs today will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s and Sunday will be
in the lower 90s to near 100 degrees. With dew points remaining
mainly in the 60s today, heat indices should remain below advisory
criteria. Some dew points will climb into the lower 70s Sunday,
increasing the heat indices slightly. Lows tonight will be in the
lower to mid 70s and in the 70s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Biggest story will be a continuation of dangerous heat that will be
already in place when the period starts. Guidance continues to
indicate that high temperatures through Tuesday will approach 100
degrees across the majority of the CWA with low temperatures likely
only falling into the mid to upper 70s.

The combination of these temperatures with dew points in the 70s
will produce heat index values of 105 degrees or higher with heat
related headlines almost a certainty. Even though temperatures will
drop slightly Wednesday and Thursday, any relief will be short lived
as temperatures are expected to climb once again on Friday.

Main culprit to all of this is a sprawling H5 ridge that will cover
a large portion of the nations mid section. Surface high pressure
moving through the Ohio Valley will keep southerly flow over the
forecast area and a steady inflow of high dewpoint air helping to
boost humidity levels. A weak impulse moving through the prevailing
flow may kick off some diurnally driven showers Tuesday afternoon
but coverage will be spotty at best.

Some relief is expected Wednesday and Thursday as a shortwave dives
through the northwest and pushes the ridge axis to the west. This
wave will result in rain chances Wednesday and Thursday and while
excessive amounts of rain are not expected, temperatures will be
cooler and dew points will be lower, especially Thursday in the wake
of a back door cold front.

The upper ridge will build back over the forecast area Friday and
while temperatures warm again, the back door cold front will at
least keep dew points a little lower over the northern half of the
forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

High pressure will continue over the area through the period. Fog
is noted at PBF and expect MVFR conditions for an hour. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will continue through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     95  76  96  75 /   0  10  10  10
Camden AR         95  73  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       92  75  93  73 /  10  10  10   0
Hot Springs AR    96  73  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  96  78  98  78 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     96  76  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      93  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  93  74  93  73 /  10  10  20  10
Newport AR        94  76  96  76 /   0  10  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     94  76  98  77 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   96  75  98  77 /   0  10  10   0
Searcy AR         95  74  97  76 /   0  10  10  10
Stuttgart AR      93  77  96  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...51