018
FXUS64 KLZK 151712
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1212 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to meander
around the region through the period keeping precipitation chances
in the forecast before ending Monday evening, at the earliest.

The latest surface and satellite information show the center of
circulation remains somewhere over northern Mississippi, in roughly
the same place it was 24 hours ago. System remains cut off from the
prevailing upper flow and is forecast by guidance to slowly sink to
the south through Monday night.

Guidance remains consistent in higher precipitation chances today
and into Monday versus what was seen on Saturday. Tropical moisture
surges into the region on northeast winds, rotates around the
remnant low, and produces widespread showers over mainly the eastern
half of the state with what looks to be a fairly sharp POP gradient
westward.

Rainfall totals could approach an inch over parts of eastern
Arkansas through Monday with lesser amounts further west. Clouds
will persist over the east with decreasing amounts over central and
especially western sections. Temperatures will range from the mid 70s
over the east to the mid 80s over the west both Sunday and Monday.

Overall conditions will begin to dry out Monday night into Tuesday
as the remnant low finally sinks to the south and upper ridging
begins to build into central plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Mid-level ridging will build across the south-central to Midwest
states through much of the week. Dry conditions with near-average to
above-average temperatures are forecast, with highs in the 80s to
lower 90s and lows temps in the 60s. By next weekend, long-term
models return slight rain chances to the forecast area, mainly
across western portions of the state, as an upper trough sweeps
across the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The remnants of what was Francine continues to impact the area.
Light SHRA will continue through the afternoon hours with heavier
rain possible overnight and into tomorrow. All terminal sites can
expect some impacts in VIS and CIGs with MVFR/IFR conditions
prevailing. This is expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  81  62  85 /  60  30   0   0
Camden AR         68  80  64  86 /  20  50   0   0
Harrison AR       64  79  60  83 /  20  30   0   0
Hot Springs AR    67  81  65  88 /  30  40   0   0
Little Rock   AR  70  81  67  87 /  50  40   0   0
Monticello AR     70  80  66  87 /  40  40   0   0
Mount Ida AR      65  81  63  87 /  20  40   0   0
Mountain Home AR  65  80  62  85 /  30  30   0   0
Newport AR        67  81  63  84 /  60  30   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     68  79  64  86 /  60  40   0   0
Russellville AR   67  80  64  87 /  30  30   0   0
Searcy AR         67  81  64  87 /  60  50   0   0
Stuttgart AR      69  80  65  85 /  70  50   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...73