739
FXUS64 KLZK 200540
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1240 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

H500 ridging to the east of the area will expand west over the
state Thu-Fri. This will provide dry conditions along with
increasing temperatures the next couple of days. Td values will
largely remain below 70 F which will limit heat indices to below
heat advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The major storyline regarding the long-term forecast period will be
the extremely hot afternoon high temperatures and the lack of
overnight/early morning relief across the state, especially going
into the weekend and early next week.

In the upper lvls, a ridge of high pressure along with a high
pressure center will be positioned over the Mid-South region of the
CONUS to begin the weekend. Throughout the weekend, this area of
stout ridging will meander westward over the Southern Plains during
the weekend and into early next week before becoming fixated over
the Four Corner region of the CONUS. It is during this period on
Sunday and Monday afternoon, in which, the Little Rock metro along
with several other locations across Arkansas could near, reach, or
even eclipse the century mark for a high temperature (which would be
the first official 100 degree day for any location within Arkansas
for 2024 if this is to pan out).

Heat index values over this stretch will be particularly dangerous
as well with afternoon values on Sunday and Monday in the 100s for
the majority of the state with some locations making a run into the
mid to upper 100s prompting possible heat advisories for portions of
Arkansas on these days. It will be imperative to take breaks out of
the heat via an air conditioned location regardless if recreating or
working in these conditions along with remaining hydrated.

Additionally, temperatures at night will offer little to no relief
with such intense daytime heating with most locations only falling
into the mid to upper 70s.

At the sfc, predominately southwesterly to south-southwesterly winds
will keep temperatures elevated with sfc high pressure dominating
the region with overall fair and dry conditions. The only exception
will be the scant chance of POPs leading to the outlier possibility
of isolated showers and thunderstorm chances given the presence of
moisture via the Gulf of Mexico and parcels reaching their
convective temperature (however, this activity would be isolated in
nature and not offer much reprieve from the heat overall)
transitioning from early next week into the middle of next week.

Temperatures over the long-term forecast period will be above normal
for both afternoon high temperatures and overnight/morning low
temperatures compared to climatological normals for this time of the
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

An upper level ridge over the eastern U.S. will retrograde to the
west during the next couple of days. No precipitation is expected.
VFR conditions will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     91  70  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         94  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       88  68  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    93  70  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  92  73  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     93  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      91  69  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  89  69  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        92  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     92  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   92  71  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         92  70  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      92  72  93  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...51